Ngaba intlawulo yemali-mboleko iya kuzisa isifingo phantsi kwe-balance sheet ehlayo?
04/23/2022
I-Fed ikhankanye kwimizuzu yayo yamva nje ukuba iya kuqalisa ngokusemthethweni ukucutha ibhalansi yayo ngoMeyi, kwaye iqikelele ukuba inokuba lelona likhulu kunanini na ngaphambili.Emva kokuba i-Federal Reserve iqalise umjikelo wokunyusa inzala, isicwangciso sokunciphisa i-balance sheet nayo ifakwe kwi-ajenda.Abanye ababoleki banokuziva bengaqhelekanga malunga "nokuncipha kwe-balance sheet".Xa i-COVID-19 yaqhambuka ngo-2020, iFederal Reserve yaqala ukuthenga izixa ezikhulu zeebhondi kwimarike, ngenjongo yokuvuselela uqoqosho ngokufaka imali kwimarike.Le nkqubo yaziwa ngokuba yi-QE (Quantitative Easing) umgaqo-nkqubo.Esona siphumo sithe ngqo somgaqo-nkqubo we-QE kukuncitshiswa kwamazinga enzala kunye nokonyuka kwemali yorhwebo.Ngomgaqo-nkqubo we-QE, eyona njongo ye-Fed kukunciphisa inzala ngokongeza imali kwimarike, ngaloo ndlela kufezekiswa injongo yokukhuthaza uqoqosho.Kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, ukunyuka kwemarike yemasheya kunye namaxabiso ezindlu, kunye nexabiso lenzala ephantsi ye-mortgage yonke ibangelwa ngumgaqo-nkqubo we-QE.
I-Shrinking Balance Sheet ingabonwa njenge-reverse operation yomgaqo-nkqubo we-QE, Injongo ethe ngqo kukunciphisa inani lamacala omabini e-balance sheet ngexesha elifanayo, ukuze kufezekiswe injongo yokunciphisa ukujikeleza kwemali, leyo. kuzisa nesiphumo esichasayo somgaqo-nkqubo we-QE.Umphumo wecala lomgaqo-nkqubo we-QE udla ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso, kwaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwangoku "kuphezulu", ngoko emva kokuba i-Fed iqale ukunyusa izinga lenzala, kufuneka ivuthe kwaye iqalise i-Shrinking Balance Sheet, ukwenzela ukuba "i-double-brake" ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Lo mjikelo uza kuba njani Iphepha Lomncono elicuthayo lwenziwe?
Kukho iindlela ezintathu eziphambili zokunciphisa ubungakanani bokuthengwa kwebhondi;ukuthengisa iibhondi ngokuthe ngqo;kunye nokuvumela ii-asethi ukuba zihlawulelwe ngokuzenzekelayo ekukhuleni (ukukhululwa), oko kukuthi, ukunqanda utyalo-mali kwakhona ekuvuthweni.
Zontathu iindlela zingasetyenziselwa ukunciphisa ubungakanani be-balance sheet, ukunciphisa inani lemali ejikelezayo ukunyusa izinga lenzala, kunye nokulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Imizuzu yentlanganiso yomgaqo-mali yamva nje ekhutshwe yi-Federal Reserve ibonisa ukuba ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo "bavuma ngokubanzi" ukunciphisa ukugcinwa kwe-asethi ye-Fed ukuya kwi-95 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngenyanga.
Le mizuzu ikwakhankanyile "ngokukodwa ngokuphinda kutyalwe imali kwinqununu efunyenwe kwi-SOMA's securities holdings," oku kuthetha ukuba lo mjikelo wokucutheka uya kuba "ungenzi nto," endaweni yokuthengisa okusebenzayo, ngendlela yesithathu ekhankanywe ngasentla.Iingcali zezoqoqosho ezininzi zilindele ukuba i-Fed ijonge ukucutha ibhalansi yayo malunga ne-3 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwiminyaka emithathu.Kodwa imizuzu ayikhange ichaze ukuba i-cap iza kufakwa njani, iinkcukacha ezinokubhengezwa kwintlanganiso kaMeyi.Ukuba i-Fed iyaqhubeka nokucutha ibhalansi yayo njengoko iqikelelwe, iya kuba lelona likhulu kunanini na ngaphambili.
Nciphisa iyakhawuleza , impembelelo ayinakwenzeka Yandiswa
Umjikelo wokugqibela wokunciphisa wawuphakathi kwe-2017 kunye ne-2019. Kuthathe ixesha elide kakhulu ukuqala ukucutha ibhalansi emva kokunyuka kwezinga lenzala emine ngo-2015. Kwaye kuthatha unyaka wonke ukuba i-Fed ifikelele kwizinga eliphezulu le-50 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngenyanga.
Lo mjikelo wokucutheka unokusuka ku-zero ukuya kwi-95 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwiinyanga ezintathu.Iimarike zilindele ukucuthwa konyaka ngaphezulu kwe-1.1 yezigidi zezigidi zeedola.Oku kuthetha ukuba ekupheleni kwalo nyaka okanye ekuqaleni konyaka ozayo, isantya sokunciphisa kulindeleke ukuba sidlule inani elipheleleyo kulo lonke umjikelezo we-2017-2019.
Xa kuthelekiswa nomjikelo wangaphambili, i-Federal Reserve iye yanciphisa i-balance sheet yayo ngokukhawuleza kunye nokuqina okukhulu, kwaye yathumela isignali eqinile yokuqinisa.Ngaba isicwangciso "sobundlongondlongo" sokunciphisa i-balance sheet siyakukhawulezisa ukunyuka kwezivuno zikaNondyebo?
Njengoko kukhankanyiwe ngasentla, lo mjikelo wokucutheka uya kuba "yi-passive" ngendlela yokumisa kwi-Bond Reinvestment.Nangona kunjalo, i-shrinkage "passive" ye-balance sheet ayenzi i-odolo yokuthengisa imarike, ayiyi kutyhala ngokuthe ngqo ukuphela kwexesha elide lezinga lenzala, impembelelo kwizinga lenzala lingaphezulu ngokungathanga ngqo.Xa sijonga indlela esabela ngayo kwimarike, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso enzala emalike kutshanje, kuqukwa neereyithi zebhondi ye-Treasury kunye ne-mortgage rates, sele inexabiso-kwimpembelelo yokunyuka kwenzala elandelayo kunye nokuncipha kwephepha-mali, kwaye phantse ukhethe esona siphumo "sokhozi".
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Apr-23-2022