[I-2023 Outlook] Ixesha le-bubble ye-real estate liphelile, izinga lenzala liye lanyuka kwaye i-real estate market iqala ukubuyisela kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka!
12/19/2022
Powell: ukuphela kweqamza lezindlu
Ngo-2005, owayesakuba nguSihlalo we-Federal Reserve u-Alan Greenspan uxelele iCongress, "I-bubble yezindlu e-United States ayinakwenzeka."
Inyani kukuba, nangona kunjalo, iqamza lezindlu lalisele likhona kwaye lalisondela kwincopho yalo xa uGreenspan wazisa lo myalezo.
Ukukhawuleza ukuya kuthi ga ngoku ka-2022, kwaye kuba besisasoyika iqamza lokugqibela lezindlu, ngeli xesha izazi ngezoqoqosho azoyiki ukuvuma ukuba ikho.
Ngomhla wama-30 kaNovemba, isazi sezoqoqosho esinempembelelo kwihlabathi, uSihlalo weFederal Reserve uJerome Powell, wavuma ubukho beqamza lezindlu kumsitho, esithi ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezindlu e-US ngexesha lo bhubhani kuhlangabezana nenkcazo “yeqamza lezindlu.”
“Ngexesha lo bhubhani, abantu bebefuna ukuthenga izindlu kwaye baphume esixekweni baye ezidolophini ngenxa yamaxabiso aphantsi kakhulu emali-mboleko, kwaye ngelo xesha, amaxabiso ezindlu anyukele kumanqanaba angazinzanga, ke ngenene bekukho iqamza lezindlu e-United States. .”
NgoSeptemba, uPowell wathi: iUnited States ingene ngokusemthethweni "ixesha lohlengahlengiso olunzima" kwimarike yezindlu, baya kubuyisela "ibhalansi" phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwiimarike.
Kwaye ngoku ukuba i-bubble ye-real estate iphelile, inkqubo "yokulinganisa kwakhona" imarike iqalile.
Imbonakalo yemarike yezindlu ngo-2023
Ngo-2022, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphambene kuye kwavuselela ukuzimisela kweFed ukunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ngomlinganiselo omnye wokunyuka emva komnye, amaxabiso okuboleka imali anyuke ngesantya esingazange sibonwe ngaphambili, enyuka ukusuka kwi-1% ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya kwi-7%.
Ixabiso lasekhaya lelizwe eliphakathi liye lehla kancinci kancinci ukusukela kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kwaye lalingaphantsi nge-7.9% ukusuka kwincopho yalo ekupheleni kukaNovemba ka-2022.
(Ixabiso eliphakathi lase-US, ngoJanuwari-Novemba 2022; umthombo: Realtor)
Ngaphantsi kwenyanga, sisondela "kwixesha" lika-2022 kunye "namanqaku emibuzo" ka-2023: Ngaba amaxabiso asekhaya ase-US azoqhubeka nokuhla ngo-2023?Iza kujika nini imarike yezindlu?
Ngokutsho kwe-Zillow kunye ne-Realtor ye-forecast, i-avareji yexabiso lekhaya kulo lonke elase-US liya kuqhubeka nokunyuka kwiinyanga ezizayo ze-12.
Ngapha koko, uninzi lwee-economists ze-real estate ziqikelela ukuba amaxabiso ezindlu nomhlaba awayi kuhla kakhulu ngo-2023, kodwa aya kuqhubeka nokunyuka ngobunono nangokucothayo.
Ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu, amaxabiso aphezulu emali-mboleko, kunye nokucotha ukuthengiselana ngezindlu, kutheni uninzi luxoxa ukuba amaxabiso asekhaya awazukuhla ngo-2023?
Enyanisweni, umgwebo oyintloko usekelwe kwinto yokuba uluhlu lwempahla kwi-US real estate market alusaneli kwaye uluhlu lwezindlu ezithengiswayo luphantsi kakhulu, oluya kunceda ukugcina amaxabiso asekhaya ezinzile.
UPowell ukwakuvumile oku kwintetho yakhe kwiveki ephelileyo – “Akukho nanye kwezi (uhlengahlengiso lwezindlu) eza kudala iingxaki eziya kuba nefuthe lexesha elide, inani lezindlu ezisakhiwayo kuya kuba nzima ukukhawulelana neemfuno zoluntu, kwaye kubonakala ukunqongophala kwezindlu. kunokwenzeka ukuba ziqhubeke ixesha elide.”
(Uqikelelo lwamva nje lwamacandelo angama-322 emarike yezindlu nomhlaba; umthombo: Ithamsanqa)
Nangona "izindlu ezixineneyo kakhulu" ziya kumisa ukuhla kwamaxabiso ezindlu, uphuhliso olwahlukileyo lwemarike yendawo yokuhlala lunokukhokelela kwimeko apho amaxabiso ezindlu enyuka kwezinye iindawo kwaye amaxabiso ezindlu ehla kwezinye iindawo.“
Ngokukodwa, iimarike “ezazixabiseke kakhulu” ngexesha lo bhubhani zinokubona ukuhla okunyukayo kwamaxabiso.
Inzala iphezulu, imarike yezindlu iya kujika nini?
Ukususela ngo-Dec. 8, izinga lenzala kwi-30-year-mortgages liye lawa ukusuka kwinqanaba eliphezulu lonyaka le-7.08% ukuya kwi-6.33%, emva kokuwa ngokukhawuleza kwiiveki ezine ezilandelelanayo.
Umthombo: Freddie Mac
U-Lisa, ingcali yezoqoqosho kwi-Bright MLS, uthe, "Oku kubonisa ukuba amaxabiso emali-mboleko anokuba enyuke kakhulu."Kodwa ukwalumkise ngelithi izinga lenzala lizakuqhubeka liguquguquka ngenxa yokungaqiniseki kwezoqoqosho.
Uninzi lweengcali, nangona kunjalo, zikholelwa ukuba amaxabiso emali-mboleko aya kuguquguquka kodwa ahlale kuluhlu lwe-7% kwaye angaphuli ukuphakama kwangaphambili kwakhona.
Ngamanye amazwi, amaxabiso emali-mboleko anyukile!Ke ingaba imarike yezindlu evilaphayo iya kuthatha nini ithuba?
Okwangoku, inzala ephezulu kunye nobonelelo oluqinileyo luya kuqhubeka ukubamba abathengi abanokuthi bathenge izindlu, kwaye imfuno ebuthathaka inokukhokelela ekwehleni okuncinci kwamaxabiso asekhaya.
Kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2023, nangona kunjalo, imakethi yezindlu nomhlaba inokuphinda ibone ukuphindaphindwa njengoko isantya senzala siphelelwa lixesha, amaxabiso emali-mboleko ehla, kunye nokuzithemba komthengi onokuthi abuyele ngokuthe ngcembe.
Ngamafutshane, "inzala ye-Fed yokunyuka" yenye yezinto ezibalulekileyo eziphazamisa indlela yokuthengisa izindlu.
Xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphezulu, i-Fed iya kucotha izinga layo lokunyuka ngokufanelekileyo, kwaye amaxabiso emali mboleko aya kuhla ngokuthe ngcembe, okuya kuba nefuthe elihle ekubuyiseleni ukuzithemba kunye nomdla wotyalo-mali kwimarike yezindlu.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Dec-20-2022