Isantya seSeptember Shrinkage siphindwe kabini, iMakethi Yangcangcazela: Amaxabiso ezindlu zokuboleka azakunyuka!
09/12/2022
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kube nzima, iShrinkage iyathandabuza
Kwiinyanga ezintathu ezidlulileyo, i-Federal Reserve yabhengeza ukuba ukucutha i-balance sheet kwakukwi-ajenda emva kokuqala umjikelo wokunyuka kwezinga.
Ngokwesicwangciso esipapashiweyo se-Fed, ubukhulu balo mjikelo wokucutheka kuya kuba ngowona mkhulu kunanini na ngaphambili: i-47.5 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngenyanga kwiinyanga ezintathu ukuqala ngoJuni, kubandakanya i-30 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwi-Treasury bond kunye ne-17.5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwi-MBS (i-mortgage-backed securities).
Imarike yoyika kakhulu into engaziwayo ngexesha lokucutheka kunokunyusa izinga, emva kwayo yonke into, impembelelo kwimarike yokuthatha indlela enzima ngolo hlobo kwi-balance sheet contraction ayinakujongelwa phantsi.
Kodwa ngoku iinyanga ezintathu sele zidlulile, kwaye xa kuthelekiswa nokunyuka kwamazinga e-Fed unyaka wonke, ukutyhala ngaxeshanye ukucutheka kubonakala kuncinci, kwaye ngaphambili bekukho iimbono ezininzi ezithi iFed khange iqalise ukucutha iphepha lomncono. , kodwa endaweni yoko wandise ngokufihlakeleyo i-balance sheet ukuzinzisa i-equity kunye neemarike zezindlu.
Ukanti ngaba ukucofa ngenene liqhinga elenziwe yiFed?Ewe, i-Fed iqhubela phambili ngokucofa, ngamandla angaphantsi kakhulu kunokuba wonke umntu ebecinga.
Njengoko kulindelwe yi-Fed, i-draw ehlayo ukusuka ngoJuni ukuya ku-Agasti kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-142.5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, kodwa ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kuphela malunga ne-63.6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwii-asethi ziye zatsalwa phantsi.
Umthombo womfanekiso:https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
Ngaphantsi kwesiqingatha sesicwangciso sokuqala se-shrinkage - xa kuthelekiswa nee-hitters ezinzima kwizinga lenzala ukunyuka, i-Fed ibonakala inqwenela-i-washy ngokwemiqathango yokunciphisa.
Ukunqanda ukudodobala koqoqosho, isantya esicothayo sokushwabana kumanqanaba okuqala
Ubukho obuphantsi bomjikelo wokuqala we-shrinkage ukusuka ngoJuni ukuya ku-Agasti ubukhulu becala ngenxa yokuba ukuncitshiswa kwangempela kobukhulu bempahla ye-Fed yayingaphantsi kakhulu kunokuba bekulindelwe, kwaye imarike yayichatshazelwa ngokucacileyo ngakumbi ngumgaqo-nkqubo wokunyuka kwesantya se-Fed.
Enyanisweni, kwiinyanga ezintathu zokuqala, ukunciphisa amatyala e-Fed kwi-Treasuries ngokusisiseko kuhambelana nesicwangciso sokuqala, kodwa i-MBS holds ayiwi kodwa iphakame, nto leyo eyakhokelela kwimibuzo emininzi echasene ne-Fed: i-shrinkage exeliweyo yaya phi?
Ngapha koko, imakethi ye-MBS yayisele ibone ukuthengiswa okuxhaphakileyo ngaphambi kokuba iFed yenze isigqibo sayo malunga nokucofa.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kulo nyaka, izinga le-30 leminyaka yokubolekwa kwezindlu liphantse laphindeka kabini ukusuka kwi-3% yoqobo, nto leyo ebangele ukwanda okubukhali koxinzelelo kubathengi bezindlu, abanye babone iindleko zabo zenyanga zokubolekwa kwemali zinyuka ngaphezulu kwe-30%.Imakethi ye-real estate ipholisa ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ukuhla kwentengiso yasekhaya kuyanda inyanga nenyanga.
Iikhredithi zemifanekiso.https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
I-Fed ibambe ukuya kuthi ga kwi-32% yemalike ye-MBS ye-8.4 yeetriliyoni zeedola, kwaye njengoyena mtyali-mali mkhulu kwimarike ye-MBS, ukuvula amasango ezikhukula ekuthengiseni amatyala kwindawo yentengiso kunokuthi kunyuse amaxabiso emali-mboleko kwaye ngaloo ndlela kubangele ukuba imakethi yezindlu nomhlaba ifikelele. phola ngokukhawuleza, nto leyo eyingozi.
Ngenxa yoko, i-Fed iye yacothisa kakhulu isantya sokuhamba kwezi nyanga zintathu zidlulileyo, mhlawumbi ngeliso elijonge kumngcipheko wokudodobala koqoqosho.
Imarike ayinakukuhoya ukukhawulezisa kokuncipha
Ukusukela nge-1 kaSeptemba, i-cap kwityala lase-US kunye nokuncipha kwe-MBS kuya kuphinda kuphindwe kabini kwaye kuphakanyiswe kwi-95 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngenyanga.
Iingxelo ezininzi ziqikelele ukuba imakethi iya kuqala ukuva "indawo ebandayo" yokucofa ukuqala kule nyanga, umfanekiso unjalo déjà vu, kodwa intengiso ayinakukwazi ukuqhubeka "ukungahoyi" ukuphinda-phinda kobukhulu bokucofa emva kukaSeptemba.
Ngokophando lwe-Fed, ukucutheka kunganyusa i-10 yeminyaka ye-bond ye-US ngamanqaku amalunga nama-60 apha enyakeni, elilingana nenani lilonke lamanqaku amabini ukuya kwamathathu angama-25.
Ngokuphinda uPowell ephinda imeko yakhe "yesantya sokunyuka kwesantya", nangona kukho ukunyuswa kwamaxabiso amathathu kuphela ngoSeptemba, ngoNovemba nangoDisemba, kodwa kwisiphumo sokudityaniswa kwesantya esiphindwe kabini kunye nokunyuka kwesantya, silindele ibhondi yase-US yeminyaka eli-10. Isivuno kusenokwenzeka ukuba siphumele kwindawo entsha ephezulu ye-3.5% kamva kulo nyaka, amazinga emali-mboleko ayoyika ukusebenzisa kumjikelo omtsha wemingeni emikhulu.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-13-2022