75bp Ukonyuka, Inzala Yemali-mboleko Yehla!Kutheni imarike ithathe iscript "rerate-cut"?
08/08/2022
I-Federal Reserve iyajika ukuze ikhulule
I-Federal Reserve ibhengeze kwintlanganiso ye-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ukuba inzala iya kuqhubeka inyuswa ngamanqaku angama-75, iphakamisa izinga leemali ze-federal kwi-2.25% -2.5%.
Yayisisiganeko esiqhelekileyo njengoko izitokhwe zase-US zonyuka kwaye izivuno zikaNondyebo zehla njengoko i-75 bp yeza ngokufanelekileyo.Kunjalo, yayilibali elifanayo kwiintlanganiso zeFOMC zikaMeyi noJuni.
Eli lixesha lokuqala kwiminyaka eyi-40 edlulileyo ukuba i-Fed inyuse amaxabiso nge-75 bp ngokulandelelana.Kufanelekile ukuthetha ukuba i-Fed ibe nobudlova ngokwaneleyo, kodwa kutheni imarike ithathe iskripthi esithi "Rate-Cut"?
Kwakukho izizathu ezibini eziphambili zokusabela kakuhle kweemarike.Enye kukuba ukunyuswa kwezinga kwakuphakathi kwezinto ezilindelekileyo - imvumelwano yokunyuka kwe-75bp yayikhona ngaphambi kwentlanganiso.Esinye isizathu kukuba uSihlalo we-Fed u-Powell wachaza kwinkomfa yabezindaba emva kwentlanganiso: "kusenokwenzeka ukuba kuya kufaneleka ukucothisa isantya sokunyuka kwezinga".
Powell: Kuya kufaneleka ukucothisa isantya sokunyuka.
Ukukhankanywa nje kokuba "kunokwenzeka ukuba kucothise isantya ukuba ukunyuka" kwakwanele ukuqalisa ukuzonwabisa kwiimarike, ezibonakala ngathi zijikeleza ukunyuka kwe-75bp njenge "25bp cut".
Ngolawulo olulindelekileyo, i-Fed isibonisile ukuba izinto ezilindelweyo zibaluleke kakhulu kuneenyani kwakhona.
Iimarike zithande ukubuyisela umva ikhosi ngosuku olulandelayo emva kwentlanganiso esekelwe kwireferensi yangaphambili, kwaye ulawulo olulindelekileyo lwe-Fed lunokuchaphazela kuphela uvakalelo lwexesha elifutshane lemarike.
Umthombo:https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, nangona kunjalo, imarike ayikabonisi naziphi na iimpawu zokujika, kwaye ukulindela ukunyuka kwesantya esicothayo kubonakala kukutolika okufanelekileyo.
Ngaba kukho ukudodobala koqoqosho?
Imveliso yasekhaya yesizwe, umlinganiselo wenkcitho epheleleyo kwiimpahla kunye neenkonzo kuqoqosho lonke, wehla ngesantya sonyaka we-0.9%, iSebe lezoRhwebo lathi ngoLwesine.
Oku kucutheka kulandela ukuhla kwe-1.6% kwimisebenzi yezoqoqosho kwiinyanga ezintathu zokuqala zonyaka kwaye kuthetha ukuba i-US ngoku ingaba kwi-recession yobugcisa - iikota ezimbini zokuwa kweGDP kulo nyaka.
EUnited States, iqela elingaphakathi kwe-NBER elenza umnxeba wokwehla koqoqosho yiKomiti yoMjikelo woBusiness Cycle Dating.Kodwa izigqibo zekomiti zihlala ziza nokuqhwalela.(Ngo-2020, ikomiti ayizange ibhengeze ukudodobala koqoqosho de uqoqosho lwehle kwaye abantu abazizigidi ezingama-22 bebengasebenzi iinyanga.)
I-NBER igxile kakhulu kwingqesho kwaye ibonakala ngathi imarike yomsebenzi e-US ibomvu eshushu.I-White House, ethe yabuyisela umva kwimbono yokuba kukho ukudodobala koqoqosho, ibonise ukuba intswela-ngqesho iphantsi kwizinga le-3.6% ngokwembali, nanjengoko iSebe lezoRhwebo lifumene ukuba uqoqosho luye lwacutheka kwiikota ezimbini zokugqibela.
Ngapha koko, akukho mathandabuzo amancinci okuba uqoqosho luyacotha, kwaye uqikelelo lwentengiso yokunyuka kwamaxabiso kulo nyaka sele luqalisile ukwehla, ngelixa ulindelo lokuthotywa kwenqanaba luye lwanda.
I-Wall Street ilindele ukuba amaxabiso afikelele kwi-3.25% ekupheleni konyaka, oku kuthetha ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso amathathu asele kulo nyaka akuyi kuba ngaphezu kwe-90 bp iyonke.
I-Fed ibonakala ngathi kuya kufuneka ithathele ingqalelo ukuba iyakuyeka na enye ireyithi yokunyuka.
Ngaba intlawulo yemali-mboleko iya kuhla?
Isivuno se-Treasury ye-10 sehle ukusuka kwi-2.7% ukuya kwi-2.658%, ephantsi kakhulu ukususela ngo-Apreli, njengoko ukulindela ukunyuka kwenzala kwaqhubeka kwehla kulo nyaka.
Umyinge wokugqibela kwimali-mboleko yeminyaka engama-30 ubuyele kwi-5.3% (uFreddie Mac)
Njengoko izinto zinjalo, inqanaba lemali-mboleko libonise ukuhla, kwaye kusenokwenzeka ukuba eyona ndawo iphezulu ihambile.
Imakethi iqikelela ukuba ngoku, isantya esinokwenzeka se-Fed sokunyuka kwesantya esilandelayo siya kuba ngolu hlobo lulandelayo:
Ukunyuka kwe-50bp ngoSeptemba, ehamba kunye nokuhamba kancinci;
Ukunyuka kwe-25bp ngoNovemba;
Ukunyuka kwe-25bp ngoDisemba kwaye ke amaxabiso aya kuhla kunyaka ozayo.
Ngamanye amazwi, i-Fed inokuqalisa ukucotha inzala yokunyuka kwamanani ngokukhawuleza ngoSeptemba, kodwa isantya sokunyuka okulandelayo sixhomekeke kwidatha ngoJulayi no-Agasti.
Kodwa ukuba amanani okunyuka kwamaxabiso angehli kakhulu, umngcipheko wokudodobala koqoqosho unokukhokelela i-Fed ukunyusa amazinga enzala ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, kwaye amaxabiso emali mboleko kulindeleke ukuba awele ngakumbi.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Aug-07-2022