Musa ukukhohliswa yi-GDP!Ukuba ukudodobala koqoqosho akunakuphepheka ngo-2023, ngaba iFed iya kuthoba amaxabiso?Iza kuya phi inzala?
11/07/2022
Ngo-Oktobha 27, idatha ye-GDP yekota yesithathu yakhululwa.
Ikota yesithathu ye-GDP iphakame i-2.6% eqinile kunyaka-unyaka, engagqithisi nje ukulindela kweemarike kwi-2.4%, kodwa iphelile "ukudodobala kobugcisa" kwangaphambili - iikota ezimbini ezilandelelanayo zokukhula kwe-GDP embi kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka.
I-GDP yaguquka ukusuka kwindawo embi ukuya kwindawo elungileyo, okuthetha ukuba ukunyuka kwexabiso lenzala ye-Fed kwakungeyona isoyikiso kuphuhliso loqoqosho.
Omnye unokucinga ukuba idatha echanekileyo yezoqoqosho idla ngokuba ngumqondiso wokuba i-Fed iya kuqhubeka iphakamisa izinga lenzala ngokukhawuleza, kodwa imarike ayizange iphendule ngokuqhubekayo.
Le datha ayizange ichithe ukulindela ukunyuka kwamanqaku e-75 ngoNovemba, kodwa iye yanda ukulindela ukunyuka kwamanqaku angama-50 (ukuqala kokuthotha kokunyuka kwezinga) kwintlanganiso kaDisemba.
Isizathu kukuba le datha ye-GDP ibonakala ilungile ngokwenene igcwele "i-feint" ngokubhekiselele kwisakhiwo esithile.
Ibinjani “intsilelo” iGDP kwikota yesithathu?
Njengoko sinokubona, inkcitho yokusetyenziswa komntu iyona nxalenye enkulu yoqoqosho lwase-US, i-avareji malunga ne-60% ye-GDP, kwaye "yintsika" yokukhula koqoqosho lwase-US.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuhla okungaphezulu kwisabelo se-GDP kubalelwa kwiinkcitho zomntu ngamnye kwikota yesithathu kubonisa ukucutheka okuqhubekayo kwintsika yokukhula koqoqosho kwaye kubonwa ngabaninzi njengesandulela sokudodobala koqoqosho.
Ukongeza, izinga lokukhula kwezinye izinto ezincinci nalo lehlile.Ke, ngubani ngokwenene oxhasa ukukhula koqoqosho kwikota yesithathu?
Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okulandelayo kube negalelo le-2.77% ekukhuleni kwe-GDP kwikota yesithathu, ngoko kunokuthiwa ukukhula kwe-GDP kwikota yesithathu phantse kuxhaswe ngokuthunyelwa ngaphandle "kodwa".
Isizathu salokhu kukuba i-US yathumela izixa zerekhodi zeoli, igesi kunye nezixhobo eYurophu ngenxa yengxabano eqhubekayo yaseRashiya-Ukraine.
Ngenxa yoko, iingcali zezoqoqosho ngokubanzi zicinga ukuba le nto yesikhashana kwaye ayiyi kuqhubeka kwiikota ezizayo.
Eli nani le-GDP limangalisayo mhlawumbi "liyi-flashback" ngaphambi kokudodobala koqoqosho.
I-Fed iya kuyijika nini ikona?
Ngokwedatha yemodeli yamva nje evela eBloomberg, ukubakho kokudodobala koqoqosho kwiinyanga ezili-12 ezizayo kuyamangalisa nge-100%.
Umthombo womfanekiso: Bloomberg
Yongeza kwinto yokuba imeko eguqukileyo kwiinyanga ezi-3 kunye ne-10 yeminyaka yebhondi yase-US, ethathwa njengezalathi zokudodobala koqoqosho, iya isanda, kwaye uloyiko lokudodobala koqoqosho luphinde lubambe kwimarike.
Ngokuchasene nale meko, ukunyuka kwenzala kunyanzeliswa kwingxaki - ngaba i-Fed iya kunciphisa amaxabiso xa kwenzeka ukudodobala koqoqosho?
Enyanisweni, kwii-recessions ezine kwiminyaka engama-30 edlulileyo, i-Fed iye yahlengahlengisa amazinga enzala kwipatheni ethile.
Ngenxa yokuba ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho kuhlala kukhatshwa kukunyuka kwentswela-ngqesho kunye nokuhla kwemfuno yabathengi, i-Fed idla ngokuqala ukucutha amaxabiso kwiinyanga ezintathu ukuya kwezintandathu emva kokuba inzala iphezulu kwiinzame zokuvuselela uqoqosho.
Nangona i-Fed inokungabaza ukuguqula i-tide ngokukhawuleza kwaye inciphise amaxabiso, ukuba ukuhla kwezoqoqosho kuqhubeka kunyaka ozayo, i-Fed iya kuthatha isigqibo malunga neenyanga ezintandathu zeerhafu ezifikelela kwixabiso labo lokugqibela lokuyeka ukunyusa okanye ukunciphisa amaxabiso ukuzinzisa uqoqosho.
Izakwehla nini inzala?
Kule minyaka ingamashumi amathathu idlulileyo, izinga lemali-mboleko liye lehla ngalo lonke ixesha uqoqosho lungena kwimeko yokudodobala koqoqosho.
Nangona kunjalo, xa i-Fed inciphisa amaxabiso enzala, amaxabiso e-mortgage ngokubanzi awaphindi awe kwakhona ngokukhawuleza.
Kulahliso olune lokugqibela, imilinganiselo yemali-mboleko yeminyaka engama-30 yehle ngomyinge omalunga ne-1% kwisithuba sonyaka onesiqingatha sokuqala kokudodobala koqoqosho.
Ukufikeleleka kubathengi bamakhaya okwangoku kuphantsi kakhulu, kodwa kubathengi abaninzi ngakumbi, ukudodobala okukhulu kwezoqoqosho kuya kuzisa umngcipheko wokuphulukana nomsebenzi okanye umvuzo ophantsi, okonyusa ngakumbi ukufikeleleka.
I-75 yesiseko senqanaba lokunyuka ngoNovemba kwakungekho mpikiswano, kwaye umbuzo omkhulu kukuba i-Fed iya kubonisa "i-taper" ngoDisemba.
Ukuba i-Fed icebisa ngokucotha kwesantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso kamva kulo nyaka, amaxabiso emali mboleko nawo aya kuthatha ikhefu ngelo xesha.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Nov-08-2022