Inzala ephezulu iya kuhlala ixesha elingakanani emva kokuphela kokunyuswa kweereyithi?
01/20/2023
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyaqhubeka kuphola!Ukuphela kweXesha lokuHamba kweRate elinobundlongondlongo
Iintsuku zokunyuka kwamazinga obundlobongela ziphelile - idatha yamva nje ekhutshwe yi-CPI yayingcono ngakumbi kunokuba bekulindelwe.
Ngomhla we-12 kaJanuwari, idatha ye-Bureau of Labor Statistics ibonise ukuba i-US CPI ikhule ngesantya esincinci se-6.5% ngoDisemba 2022, yehla ukusuka kwi-7.1% ngoNovemba kwaye ingaphantsi kwe-9.1% ephezulu ngoJuni.
Isalathiso seXabiso loMthengi sehlile unyaka nonyaka kwinyanga yesithandathu ilandelelana, yafikelela kwinqanaba elisezantsi ukusukela ngo-Okthobha ka-2021, kwaye yayingalunganga unyaka nonyaka okokuqala ngqa kwiminyaka emithathu.
Le yidatha yokugqibela ekhoyo evela kwi-CPI ngaphambi kokuba i-Fed ivakalise isigqibo sayo sokunyusa izinga lenzala ngoFebruwari 1. Kanye kunye nedatha engaphantsi kuneyokulindelwe kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo, zibonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-USA kunciphisa ngakumbi kwaye uxinzelelo lwexabiso luye lwaphakama. .
Le datha kulindeleke ukuba ikhuthaze i-Fed ukuba icothise isantya sokunyuka kwamazinga kwakhona: Ukulindela kweemarike zangoku kwintlanganiso elandelayo ye-Fed ukunyusa amaxabiso ngamanqaku e-25 asisiseko ngokwenene ngaphezu kwe-93%!
Umthombo womfanekiso: CME FedWatch Tool
Kunokuthiwa i-25 yenqanaba lokunyuka kwamanqaku ngoFebruwari ngokusisiseko kwaqinisekiswa, oku kuthetha ukuba ixesha lokunyuka kwamazinga aphezulu liphelile!
Kwaye ukunyuka kwezinga elidibeneyo ngoFebruwari nangoMatshi kulindeleke ukuba kube ngaphantsi kwee-50 zamanqaku asisiseko, ebonisa ukuba ngokuqinisekileyo kunokwenzeka ukuba i-Fed ayiyi kuphakamisa amaxabiso ngo-Matshi kwaye umjikelezo wokunyuka kwesantya uye wangena ngokusemthethweni kwi-countdown!
Ukuhla kwexabiso lentengo nako kuya kukhawuleza!
Ukophulwa yinkqutyana, ukwehla kweCPI ngoDisemba ikakhulu kubangelwe kukuhla kwamaxabiso epetroli kunye nokuqhubekeka kokuhla kwexabiso leemveliso.
Nangona kunjalo, kwizindlu, umqhubi oyintloko weenkonzo ezingundoqo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso, izinga lokukhula kwamaxabiso okurenta alizange libonise ukuhla okuphawulekayo kweDisemba.
Oku kubonisa ukuba ukuhla kweerenti akukagqithiselwa kwi-CPI kwaye kuya kuthi emva koko kuqhube ukuhla ngokubanzi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Kwelinye icala, amaxabiso amandla abuthathaka, ukuhla kwamaxabiso eemveliso, kunye neempembelelo zesiseko esiphakamileyo ngo-2022 kufuneka kukhokelele ekwehleni okukhawulezileyo kokunyuka kwamaxabiso okulandela.
Ngaphezu koko, ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho kuye kwaba nzima ukukuphepha ukususela ekubeni i-Federal Reserve yagqiba ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokunciphisa ukukhula koqoqosho.
Kungekudala, iimpawu ezininzi zibonise ukwehla komsebenzi wezoqoqosho wase-US - ukungenisa kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwawa ngoNovemba ukususela ngo-Oktobha, kunye nokuthengiswa kweentengiso, imveliso yokuvelisa kunye nokuthengiswa kwekhaya nako kuncipha.
Ngokoqikelelo lwamva nje lweGoldman Sachs, i-CPI inokuthi yehle ibe ngaphantsi kwe-5% unyaka nonyaka ekupheleni kwekota yokuqala phantsi kweempembelelo zezi zinto zingasentla, ngelixa inokuwela ukuya kuthi ga kwi-3% ekupheleni kwekota yesibini.
Inzala ephezulu iya kuhlala ixesha elingakanani emva kokuphela kokunyuswa kwenzala?
I-25 yenqanaba lokunyuka kwenqanaba ngoFebruwari sele liphezu kwetafile, kwaye i-Fed nayo iya kuba neeseti zedatha yengqesho kunye ne-inflation (01/2023, 02/2023) ekhoyo kwintlanganiso yereyithi kaMatshi.
Ukuba ezi ngxelo zibonisa ukuba ukukhula kwemisebenzi kuyaqhubeka nokucotha (ngaphantsi kwe-300,000 yemisebenzi emitsha engeyiyo yeefarm) kwaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyaqhubeka nokuhla, i-Fed iyakuyeka ukunyusa amaxabiso emva kokunyuka kwe-25 yesiseko ngo-Matshi, ishiya amazinga ukuba afikelele kwi-5% .
2023 Ikhalenda yeNtlanganiso yeFOMC
Noko ke, ukuze kuphetshwe izifundo zeminyaka yee-1970, xa inzala yayinganyuswanga kodwa yathotywa yaza yaphinda yanyuswa, nto leyo ebangela ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo uguquguquke, amagosa eFed avuma ukuba emva kokuyekwa kokunyuka kwamaxabiso, inzala ifanele igcinwe kwinqanaba eliphezulu. kangangexesha elithile de kubekho ukuhla okuphawulekayo kwexabiso lentengo ngaphambi kokuba kucuthwe isantya.
Igosa leFed uDaley lathi "kuyavakala ukubamba inzala kwincopho yabo malunga neenyanga ezili-11".
Ke ukuba i-Fed ayinyusi amaxabiso kwakhona ngo-Matshi, siyakubona ukuthotywa kwesantya kwangoko ngo-2024.
Inzala ephezulu iya kuhlala ixesha elingakanani emva kokuphela konyuso?
Okwangoku, i-Fed iqalile ukunciphisa ngokuthe ngcembe inzala yokwandisa isantya, kwaye kukho kuphela ukuncipha okufanayo kwisantya sokunyuka kwenzala ukususela ngo-1990 (1994-1995).
Ukusuka kwidatha yembali, izivuno zebhondi zase-US ziye zancipha kakhulu kwiinyanga ezi-3-6 emva kokunyuka kwezinga le-Fed kunye nexabiso lenzala elincitshisiweyo.
Ngamanye amazwi: Kusenokwenzeka ukuba sibone ukuhla okuphawulekayo kumaxabiso emali-mboleko kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-21-2023