Lixesha lokuba Revavanyatyena Ukulindela ukudodobala koqoqosho
07/13/2022
Utshintsho olukhulu ngexesha elifutshane
Njengoko i-Federal Reserve iqinisa umgaqo-mali wemali ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso okubi kakhulu kwiminyaka engama-40, uqoqosho lwase-US luphezu kokunciphisa.
Abatyali-mali baye boyika kakhulu ukudodobala koqoqosho kunokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiveki ephelileyo.
Uninzi lweebhanki ezinkulu zaseWall Street zikhuphe izilumkiso zokudodobala koqoqosho, kwaye uWells Fargo wade wathi iUnited States iwele ekuwohlokeni.
Njengoko i-stock market yakhawuleza ukwehla kwayo, i-bond market yahamba phezulu ngokuhlangeneyo, kwaye i-index ye-dollar ifikelele kwiminyaka engama-20 ephezulu, ukurhweba ngokulindelekileyo kokudodobala koqoqosho.
Ngokuqala kokudodobala koqoqosho, amashishini kunye noqoqosho lujongene noxinzelelo olwandayo;izazi zezoqoqosho zikholelwa ukuba imarike yabasebenzi ilahlekelwa ngamandla, ngelixa i-non-farm payrolls data ngoLwesihlanu ingaba yinto ebangela ukuguquguquka kweemarike.
Nangona kunjalo, izivuno zebhondi yase-US ziye zatsibela umva ngaphezulu kwe-3% emva kolwesiHlanu, kwaye amathuba okunyuka kwamanqaku angama-75 ngoJulayi anyuke aya kuma-92.4%.
Konke ngenxa yokuba le datha ikude nokuba buthathaka njengoko uninzi lwabantu belulindele,
kodwa kubonakala ukuba kuhle kakhulu.
Kwenziwa kanjani ukuqonda le ngxelo ?
ISebe lezaBasebenzi linike ingxelo ngolwesiHlanu ukuba kuthe kwadaleka imisebenzi emitsha engama-372,000 ngoJuni ngelixa izinga lentswela-ngqesho likwi-3.6 yeepesenti, phakathi kwawona mazinga asezantsi kakhulu.
Ngoko kutheni le ngxelo itshintshe iimeko zemarike ngexesha elifutshane?Yatsala njani ingqalelo enkulu kuwo onke amaqela?
Siyazi ukuba umsebenzi ombini we-Fed kukugcina uzinzo lwexabiso kunye nokuqinisekisa umsebenzi ophezulu, ngoko ke imigaqo-nkqubo ye-Fed izama ukulinganisa phakathi "kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso" kunye "nezinga lokungasebenzi".
Nangona kunjalo, ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngoku kuphezulu kakhulu, eyona nto iphambili yomgaqo-nkqubo weFed kukunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngeendleko zemisebenzi kunye nokukhula kwinqanaba elithile.
Nangona "izinga lokungaqeshwa" liyinkxalabo enkulu ye-Fed, sisalathisi sezoqoqosho.Kuthatha ixesha elithile ukuba imarike yemisebenzi ibandakanye izinga lentswelo-ngqesho.Ke ngoko, iipeyiroli ezingezizo ezefama zithathwa njengezalathi ezikhokelayo zenqanaba lokungaphangeli kwaye zibonisa indlela uqoqosho oluya ngayo kwinqanaba elithile.
Njengoko kuchazwe kumanqaku angaphambili, imarike ikwimeko apho iindaba ezilungileyo ze-ecodata nomic zilingana nezimbi.Iinkcukacha ezingezizo ezefama zingaphaya kokuba besilindele, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba uqoqosho alubuyi luhlehle ngenxa yokudodobala koqoqosho;nangona kunjalo, isiphumo esithe ngqo kukuba i-Fed iya kuba ngokungakhathali ekunyuseni izinga lenzala.
Kuyafaneleka ukuba uqaphele ukuba kukho inani eliphambili phakathi kwee-payrolls ezingekho kwifama kunye nezinga lokungaqeshwa: xa ii-payrolls ezingekho phantsi kweefama zihlala zingaphezu kwama-200,000, imarike yabasebenzi ithathwa njengomelele kakhulu.
Ii-payrolls ezingezizo iifama ziye zaba ngaphezulu kwenqanaba le-200,000 ukusuka kwi-2021, inika i-Fed isibindi sokuqhubeka nokunyusa amaxabiso ngokuqatha.
Ngoko xa sibheka le datha kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo, nantoni na engaphezulu kwe-200,000 ishiya ngokungathandabuzekiyo ukuba i-Fed iya kutshintsha ingqondo yayo: i-Fed icinga ukuba ngoku ingayihoyi imarike yezabasebenzi kwaye ibeke yonke ingqalelo kwi-inflation.
Ulindelo of i r ukuphelelwa lithemba kunokuba "kwangethuba kakhulu"
Emva kokuba idatha ekhutshwe kwii-payrolls ezingekho kwifama, izitokhwe zase-US kunye negolide zenyuka kancane, kodwa idola yawa kancinci.
Nangona kunjalo, ngalo mzuzu ubalulekileyo, bekukho ukuguquguquka okuncinci kwentengiso okungahambelaniyo nedatha ebaluleke kangaka.
Yintoni ebangela oku ngokwenene ngumdlalo phakathi "koloyiko lokudodobala koqoqosho" kunye "ne-hawkish Fed", kwaye intengiso ayizolanga njengoko ibonakala, kodwa igcwele ukhuphiswano.
Ukunyuka kwezinga le-75 yesiseko kule nyanga (ngoJulayi 28) iphonswe ngamatye, kwaye imarike yomsebenzi oqinileyo iye yaxhasa i-Fed ukunyusa amanyathelo okunciphisa.
Ngelixa urhwebo lwangaphambili lwemarike malunga nokudodobala koqoqosho olulindelweyo lunokuba “phambi kwexesha”, kucacile ukuba idatha yentlawulo yemivuzo engeyiyo eyefama iye yathomalalisa okwethutyana uloyiko lwabantu lokudodobala koqoqosho.Nangona uqoqosho lubonise iimpawu zokucotha, zonke iintetho malunga nokudodobala koqoqosho ngoku zingaphambi kwexesha kwaye azilulami uloyiko lokunyuka kwamaxabiso abukhali yiFed.
Ukubheja kwemarike kwisantya seFed sokunyuka kuyaqala ukunyuka, kunye noqikelelo lwesantya lutsiba ngaphezulu kwe-3.6 yeepesenti kwikota yokuqala yonyaka olandelayo.
Ukudodobala koqoqosho kwangaphambili kunokuba yi-alarm yobuxoki, kodwa i-Fed isafuna ukuba novelwano ngokudodobala koqoqosho kunye nemeko yezemali engqongqo.
Mhlawumbi iimarike ziya kuyeka ukuphakuzela kuphela xa i-FED iqala ukuphakuzela.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-16-2022