UbuGcisa boLawulo oluLindekileyo:
Iintlobo ngeentlobo “zamaqhinga” e-Fed
05/10/2022
"Ndiyazi ukuba ucinga ukuba uyayiqonda le nto ubuyithetha kodwa andiqinisekanga ukuba uyaqonda ukuba le nto uyivileyo ayisiyiyo le bendiyithetha."– Alan Greenspan
Ngexesha elithile, uSihlalo we-Federal Reserve u-Alan Greenspan wenza ukutolika komgaqo-mali wemali kumdlalo wokuqagela.
Naliphi na inyathelo elincinane lalo mlawuli wezoqoqosho liye laba sisilinganisi soqoqosho lwehlabathi ngelo xesha.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuqhambuka kwengxaki ye-Subprime ye-mortgage ayibethanga kuphela uqoqosho lwase-US, kodwa kwakhona vumela imarike ukuba izive inganelisekanga kakhulu ngumdlalo wokuqagela weFed.
Ngenxa yoko, uSihlalo omtsha we-Federal Reserve uBerknan wafunda kwezi mpazamo kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe waqala ukwamkela indlela "yolawulo lokulindela" kwaye aqhubeke nokuphucula.
Okwangoku, malunga nale seti yeendlela zokulawula okulindelweyo, i-Fed iphantse yadlala ngokugqibeleleyo.
NgoLwesithathu, i-Fed ibhengeze isisombululo sayo senzala yamva nje, ibhengeza i-50-based point rate, kwaye iya kuqala ukunciphisa ibhalansi yayo ngoJuni.
Kwi-Fed's umgaqo-nkqubo oqinileyo wokuqinisa, impendulo yemarike ibonakala inethemba elikhulu, ngengqiqo yokuba imarike ifakwe kwiindaba ezimbi.
I-S&P 500 ibethe eyona pesenti inkulu yenzuzo yosuku olunye phantse unyaka, kwaye ibhondi yase-US yeminyaka eyi-10 nayo yawa emva kokubetha i-3%, kanye yehla ukuya kwi-2.91%.
Ngokwengqiqo eqhelekileyo, i-Fed ibhengeze ukunyuka kwezinga, okwakuqiniswa kwemali, i-stock market iya kuba nokwehla okuthile, kwaye kunengqiqo ukuba iibhondi zase-US kufuneka ziphakame ekuphenduleni.Noko ke, kutheni kukho intsabelo echaseneyo nolindelo?
Oku kungenxa yokuba imakethi ixabisa ngokupheleleyo kwizenzo zeFed (Ixabiso-ngaphakathi) kwaye yenza impendulo kwangoko.Konke kubulela kulawulo olulindelekileyo lwe-Fed - babamba iintlanganiso zenyanga yenzala phambi kokunyuswa kwexabiso.Ngaphambi kwentlanganiso, banxibelelana ngokuphindaphindiweyo kwaye rhoqo kunye neemarike ukuhambisa ukulindela kwezoqoqosho, okukhokelela kwimarike ukuba yamkele utshintsho kumgaqo-mali wezemali.
Ngapha koko, kwangokuphela konyaka ophelileyo, emva kokuba uSihlalo we-Fed uPowell echongwe kwakhona, watshintsha indlela yakhe yangaphambili yehobe kwaye waba ndlongondlongo.
Ngaphantsi kwe-Fed "yolawulo lokulindela", ukulindela kweemarike kutshintshile ukuba kuya kubakho ukunyanzeliswa ukuba kuya kubakho ukunyuka kwesantya, kwaye kwandiswe ukusuka kumanqaku angama-25 ukuya kwi-50 yesiseko.Phantsi kweempembelelo zokurhabaxa rhoqo, ukunyuka kwentiyo ekugqibeleni kwade kwavela kwiindawo ezisisiseko ezingama-75.Ekugqibeleni, i-Fed's "doveish parties" inyuse amaxabiso ngamanqaku angama-50.
Xa kuthelekiswa namanqaku asisiseko angama-25 angaphambili, amanqaku asisiseko angama-50 kunye nesicwangciso esizayo sokucutha itheyibhile ngokungathandabuzekiyo anobundlavini.Ekugqibeleni, umphumo waba "ngaphakathi kokulindela" kuba i-Fed yenze ulindelo lwamanqaku esiseko se-75.
Ukongeza, intetho kaPowell iphinde yagweba ukuba kunokwenzeka ukunyuka kwamaxabiso enzala, ukuqhuba ukuphucuka okubonakalayo kwintengiso kunye nokunciphisa amaxhala malunga nokuqiniswa okugqithisileyo.
Ngokukhululwa okuqhubekayo "kweempawu ze-hawkish", i-Federal Reserve iqhuba ulawulo olulindelekileyo, olungakhawulezisi nje umjikelo wokuqiniswa, kodwa luphinde luthobe imarike, ukwenzela ukuba umphumo we "Boot Landing" ekugqibeleni uvele, ngaloo ndlela uya kubonakala. sichithe ixesha lotshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo ngobuchule nangokuzolileyo.
Ukuqonda ubugcisa beFed bolawulo lokulindela, akufuneki soyike kakhulu xa izinga lokunyuka lifika.Kufuneka kwaziwe ukuba ezona zinto zisongelayo aziyi kwenzeka phambi kokuba izinga lehle lisuka kwelona nqanaba liphezulu.Imarike inokuba sele igaye "okulindelekileyo" kwaye yade yafumana imali kwimpembelelo yesantya sokunyuka kwangaphambi kwexesha.
Kungakhathaliseki ukuba ulindelo lugqibelele kangakanani, alukwazi ukufihla into yokuba i-Fed isekho kwindlela yomgaqo-nkqubo wokuqinisa imali;oko kukuthi, nokuba i-treasury rates okanye i-mortgage rates iphakama, kunzima ukubona i-inflection point kwixesha elifutshane.
Umyalezo obalulekileyo kukuba idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ka-Epreli iya kukhutshwa kwiveki ezayo;ukuba idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ibuyela umva, i-Fed inokunciphisa isantya sokunyuka kwenzala.
Kwiinyanga ezizayo, i-Fed mhlawumbi iya kuphinda amaqhinga afanayo, ivumela imarike ukuba igaye kwangaphambili ngolawulo lokulindela.Kufuneka sitshixe inzala ephantsi yangoku ngokukhawuleza;kanye njengokuba isaci sakudala sisithi, intaka esesandleni ixabisa iintaka ezimbini etyholweni.
Oku ngasentla kunokushwankathelwa ngesivakalisi kwishishini lokurhweba: Thenga i-rumor, uthengise iindaba.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-10-2022