Umthombo womfanekiso: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

Njengoko imarike yayicinge ngokubanzi phambi kwentlanganiso ukuba i-Fed nayo iya kuphakamisa amaxabiso ngamanqaku angama-75 kule nyanga, ugxininiso oluphambili lwemarike yayikwindawo yechaphaza kunye nembono yezoqoqosho epapashwe emva kwentlanganiso.

Uyilo lwamachaphaza, umboniso obonakalayo wabo bonke abaqulunqi bomgaqo-nkqubo we-Fed abalindelekileyo kwizinga lenzala kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, iboniswe kwitshathi;ulungelelwaniso oluthe tye lwale tshati ngunyaka, ulungelelwaniso oluthe nkqo lizinga lenzala, kwaye ichaphaza ngalinye kwitshati limele ulindelo lomenzi-nkqubo.

Umthombo womfanekiso: iFederal Reserve

Njengoko kuboniswe kwitshathi, uninzi (17) lwe-19 Fed abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo bakholelwa ukuba inzala iya kuba yi-4.00% -4.5% emva kokunyuka kwezinga ezimbini kulo nyaka.

Ke ngoku kukho iimeko ezimbini zokunyuka kwamaxabiso amabini aseleyo ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka.

I-100 bps izinga lokunyuka ekupheleni konyaka, ukunyuka kabini kwe-50 bps nganye (abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo abasi-8 bavuma).

Iintlanganiso ezimbini zihlala ziphakamisa iireyithi nge-125 bps, i-75 bps ngoNovemba kunye ne-50 bps ngoDisemba (abaqulunqi be-9 banomdla).

Ukujonga kwakhona kwinqanaba elilindelekileyo lokunyuka ngo-2023, uninzi lweevoti zahlulwe ngokulinganayo phakathi kwe-4.25% kunye ne-5%.

Oku kuthetha ukuba inzala ephakathi elindelekileyo kunyaka ozayo yi-4.5% ukuya kwi-4.75%.Ukuba amazinga enzala anyuswe aye kwi-4.25% kwiintlanganiso ezimbini ezishiyekileyo kulo nyaka, oku kuthetha ukuba kuya kubakho ukunyuswa kwamanqaku angama-25 kuphela kulo nyaka uzayo.

Ngoko ke, ngokulindelekileyo kwesi siza sechaphaza, akusayi kubakho gumbi lininzi le-Fed yokunyusa amaxabiso kunyaka ozayo.

Kwaye malunga nenzala elindelekileyo ngo-2024, kucacile ukuba izimvo zabenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo zihluke kakhulu kwaye azinanto ibalulekileyo ngoku.

Yintoni eqinisekileyo, nangona kunjalo, kukuba umjikelo wokuqiniswa kwe-Fed uya kuqhubeka - kunye nokunyuka kwamazinga anamandla.

 

Okukhona uqina ngoku, kokukhona usiba mfutshane

 

I-Wall Street ikholelwa ukuba injongo yeFed kukudala umjikelo wokuqinisa "ongqongqo, omfutshane" oya kuthi ekugqibeleni ucothise ukukhula koqoqosho njengembuyekezo yokupholisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Imbono ye-Fed yekamva loqoqosho, echazwe kule ntlanganiso, ixhasa le ngcaciso.

Kwimbonakalo yayo yezoqoqosho, i-Fed ihlaziywe uqikelelo lwayo lwe-GDP yokwenyani ngo-2022 ngokukhawuleza ukuya kutsho kwi-0.2% ukusuka kwi-1.7% ngoJuni, kwaye iphinde yahlaziywa phezulu ingqikelelo yayo yenqanaba lokungaphangeli lonyaka.

Umthombo womfanekiso: iFederal Reserve

Oku kubonisa ukuba i-Federal Reserve iqalile ukukhathazeka ukuba uqoqosho lunokungena kumjikelo wokudodobala koqoqosho, njengoko izibikezelo zezoqoqosho kunye nezengqesho zisanda kungenathemba.

Kwangelo xesha, uPowell wathetha ngokungafihlisiyo kwinkomfa yabezindaba emva kwentlanganiso, "Njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqhubeka, amathuba okufika kwindawo ethambileyo anokuncipha.

I-Fed iyavuma ukuba ukunyuka kwamazinga angaphezulu kunokwenzeka ukuba kubangele ukuhla kwezoqoqosho kunye negazi kwiimarike.

Ngale ndlela, nangona kunjalo, i-Fed inokugqiba umsebenzi "wokulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso" ngaphambi kwexesha, kwaye umjikelezo wokunyuka kwezinga uya kuphelisa.

Lilonke, umjikelo wangoku wokunyuka kwesantya unokuba yinto "enzima kwaye ikhawulezayo".

 

Ukunyuswa kwenzala kunokugqitywa phambi kwexesha elibekiweyo

Ukususela kulo nyaka, ukunyuka kwezinga lokunyuka kwe-Fed kuye kwafikelela kwi-300bp, idibene ne-dot plot ukuze ubone inkqubo yokunyuka kwezinga iya kuqhubeka ixesha elithile, umgaqo-nkqubo umi kwixesha elifutshane kwaye awuyi kutshintsha.

Oku kwasusa ngokupheleleyo iingcamango zemarike ukuba i-Fed iya kuhamba ngokukhawuleza ukuze ikhululeke, kwaye ngoku, isivuno seminyaka elishumi yeebhondi zase-US sidubule yonke indlela ukuya phezulu, kwaye sele siza kufikelela phezulu kwi-3.7%.

Kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-Federal Reserve kwi-forecast yezoqoqosho kwiinkxalabo ze-recessionary, kunye ne-dot plot yesantya sokunyusa izinga lenzala kunyaka ozayo kulindeleke ukuba ihlehlise, oku kuthetha ukuba inkqubo yokunyusa izinga lenzala, nangona kunjalo. kodwa ke isifingo siyabonakala.

Ukongezelela, kukho i-lag effect kumgaqo-nkqubo wokunyuka kwesantya se-Fed, engekagqithwa ngokupheleleyo ngoqoqosho, kwaye ngelixa ukunyuka kwesantya esilandelayo kuya kuba kukungakhathali, iindaba ezilungileyo kukuba zingagqitywa ngokukhawuleza.

 

Kwimarike ye-mortgage, akungabazeki ukuba inzala iya kuhlala iphakamileyo kwixesha elifutshane, kodwa mhlawumbi i-tide iya kutshintsha kunyaka ozayo.