Le nkcazo ngokusisiseko ithetha ukuba i-Fed iya kunciphisa ukunyuka kwezinga likaDisemba ukuya kumanqaku angama-50.

Kwangaxeshanye, abathathi-nxaxheba bathi, "Ngenxa yokungaqinisekanga komgaqo-nkqubo wemali, isantya esicothayo sokunyuka kwezinga kuya kuvumela i-FOMC ukuba ivavanye inkqubela phambili kwiinjongo zayo kwaye igqibe kwelokuba - eyona mali iphakamileyo yemali ye-federal iya kuba phezulu ngakumbi kunangaphambili. qikelelwa.

Ngamanye amazwi, umjikelo wangoku we-Fed wokunyuka kwesantya ungene kwisigaba esitsha, esicothayo kodwa esiphakamileyo neside.

I-Fed iye yavuma i-lag kumgaqo-mali wezemali kwaye yacacisa ukuba imiphumo yokunyuka kwamazinga angaphambili ayikadluliswa ngokupheleleyo kwiimarike kwaye le lag "ayiqinisekanga."

Ngenxa yoko, i-Fed igqibe ekubeni icothise isantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso ukuze ibeke iliso ngcono isiphumo sokunyuka kwamaxabiso ekuqulatheni ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.

 

Ukunyuswa kwamaxabiso kuya kuphela ngo-2023

Yintoni eyenza imarike ihlale kwaye ithathele ingqalelo yinto yokuba i-Fed ichaze ngokucacileyo umngcipheko wokudodobala koqoqosho okokuqala ngqa kwimizuzu - amathuba okudodobala kwe-US ngo-2023 kuqikelelwa malunga ne-50%.

Esi sisilumkiso sokuqala esifanayo esivela kwi-Fed ukususela oko yaqala ukunyusa amazinga enzala ngo-Matshi, isilumkiso esiye sawulawula umbono wemarike wokuthotywa kwexabiso eliqala ngo-2023.

Ukulandela ukukhutshwa kwemizuzu, i-10 ye-US ye-bond isivuno sehle yabuyela kwi-3.663%;ukuba nokwenzeka kokunyuka kwamanqaku angama-50 ngoDisemba nako kunyuke ukuya kuma-75.8%.

Abantu abaninzi bakholelwa ukuba i-Fed's "hawkishness" inokuba iphezulu, kwaye kulindeleke ngokubanzi ukuba umjikelo wangoku wokunyuka uya kuphela ngo-2023.

Ingxelo yakutshanje ikwaxhasa oku kuqikelelwa.

Ngokutsho kobikezelo lweGoldman Sachs, isalathisi se-CPI siya kuncipha ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-5% ngeentlanganiso ezininzi zenzala kunyaka ozayo.

Nje ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kungqineke kuphantsi ngokuqhubekayo kulo nyaka uzayo, ukunqunyanyiswa kwe-Fed kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kusondele.

 

Ijongeka njani indlela yexesha elizayo?

Qaphela ukuba iNtlanganiso ye-FOMC kaNovemba yandulela ukukhululwa kwe-CPI ngo-Oktobha.

Ngokupholisa kwe-CPI ngaphezu kokulindelekileyo kwinyanga edlulileyo, iimbono zamva nje zamagosa e-Fed anokuba nolwazi olungakumbi malunga nekhondo elizayo lomgaqo-nkqubo.

Nangona kunjalo, kucacile kwakhona kwiingxelo zoluntu zakutsha nje ukuba amaninzi amagosa e-Fed athatha imbono efana naleyo kwimizuzu - isantya sokunyuka kwezinga sinokuncitshiswa, kodwa kusekho isidingo sokuqinisa umgaqo-nkqubo ngakumbi.

Amagosa amaninzi amisele izinga ekujoliswe kulo malunga ne-5%.Oko kuthetha ukuba amaxabiso aya kuphakama ngo-Matshi ozayo ukuba i-Fed iphakamisa amaxabiso ngamanqaku angama-50 ngoDisemba, njengoko kulindelwe.

Ngelo xesha, izinga leemali zeFed liya kuba yi-5.0% - 5.25% kwaye liya kuhlala kuloluhlu ixesha elithile.

Ngokoqikelelo lwamva nje lukaWind, iintlanganiso ezisibhozo zenzala ngo-2023 (ngoFebruwari, Matshi, Meyi, Juni, Julayi, Septemba, Novemba, noDisemba) ziya kulandela le ndlela ilandelayo.

 

Ukunyuka kwamanqaku angama-50 ngoFebruwari.

Isantya se-25 bps sokunyuka ngoMatshi (nqumama kwisantya sokunyuka emva koko).

I-25 bps yesantya esisikiwe ngoDisemba (inguqu yokuqala ukuya kukunciphisa izinga)

 

I-Federal Reserve iya kubamba intlanganiso yayo yokugqibela yomgaqo-mali wonyaka ngoDisemba 13-14, kwaye i-50 ye-high point rate rate inokuthathwa njengento eqinisekileyo.

Nje ukuba i-Fed icuthe amaxabiso okokuqala, ukusuka kumanqaku angama-75 ukuya kumanqaku angama-50, amaxabiso emali mboleko nawo kulindeleke ukuba anciphe ngandlela thile ngelo xesha.