Isiphelo sonyaka se-Federal Reserve-izalathi ezihlanu ezibalulekileyo!
12/26/2022
Kwiveki ephelileyo, amehlo eemarike zehlabathi aphinde ajika kwakhona kwi-Federal Reserve - ekupheleni kwentlanganiso yeentsuku ezimbini, i-Fed iya kubhengeza izigqibo zayo zomgaqo-mali ngoDisemba, kunye nesishwankathelo sayo samva nje sekota yeprojekthi yezoqoqosho (SEP). ) kunye nesakhiwo samachaphaza.
Ngokungathandabuzekiyo, i-Federal Reserve yanciphisa izinga layo lokunyuka ngoLwesithathu njengoko kulindelwe, iphakamisa izinga leemali ze-federal ngamanqaku angama-50 kwi-4.25% -4.5%.
Ukususela ngo-Matshi walo nyaka, i-Federal Reserve inyuse amaxabiso ngamanani angama-425, kwaye oku kunyuka kwezinga likaDisemba kuthintele unyaka wokuqiniswa kwaye ngokungathandabuzekiyo yayiyeyona nto ibalulekileyo yokuguqula umjikelo wangoku wokunyuka kwezinga.
Kwaye yeyiphi imiqondiso ebalulekileyo eyenziwa yiFed kulo mboniso wokuphela konyaka wamazinga enzala?
Ziza kunyuswa njani iirhafu ngoFebruwari ozayo?
Ngokunyuka kwamazinga okucotha ukuya kumanqaku angama-50 kule nyanga, kuye kwavela uxinzelelo olutsha: Ngaba i-Fed "i-slam kwi-brakes" kwakhona?
Kwintlanganiso yenzala ekuqaleni kukaFebruwari kunyaka ozayo, i-Federal Reserve iya kuphakamisa amaxabiso ngamanani?UPowell wawuphendula lo mbuzo.
Okokuqala, uPowell wavuma ukuba imiphumo yokunyuka kwesantya esibukhali kwangaphambili "isekho" kwaye iphinda iphinde iphinde iphinde ichaze ukuba indlela efanelekileyo ngoku kukunciphisa izinga lokunyuka;nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka kwezinga elilandelayo kuya kugqitywa ngokusekelwe kwidatha entsha kunye neemeko zemali kunye nezoqoqosho ngelo xesha.
Njengoko ubona, i-Fed ingene ngokusemthethweni kwisigaba sesibini sokunyuka kwesantya esicothayo, kodwa ukunyuka kwesantya esilandelayo kuya kugqitywa ngokubeka esweni idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ikhredithi yomfanekiso: CME FED Watch Tool
Ukunikezelwa kokucotha okungalindelekanga ukusuka kwi-CPI ngoNovemba, ulindelo lwemarike kwi-25 elandelayo yenqanaba lokunyuka kwenqanaba lokunyuka ngoku linyuke ukuya kwi-75%.
Ngowuphi umlinganiselo wenzala womjikelo wangoku wokunyuswa kweereyithi?
Isantya sokunyuka kwezinga okwangoku akuseyona nto ibalulekileyo kwiingxoxo zeFed;okubalulekileyo kukuba kufuneka libephezulu kangakanani izinga lenzala.
Sifumana impendulo yalo mbuzo kwisiqendwana samachaphaza kweli nqaku.
I-dot-plot ipapashwa kwintlanganiso yezinga lenzala ekupheleni kwekota nganye.Xa kuthelekiswa noSeptemba, ngeli xesha i-Fed iphakamise ukulindela kwayo kwinqanaba lomgaqo-nkqubo wonyaka ozayo.
Ummandla obomvu obomvu kwitshathi engezantsi luhlu olubanzi kakhulu lokulindela abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo we-Fed kwizinga lomgaqo-nkqubo wonyaka ozayo.
Umfanekiso wekhredithi: i-Federal Reserve
Kubo bonke abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo be-19, i-10 ikholelwa ukuba amazinga kufuneka aphakanyiswe phakathi kwe-5% kunye ne-5.25% kunyaka ozayo.
Oku kukwathetha ukuba ezongezelekayo zamanqaku angama-75 okunyuka kweerhafu ziyafuneka kwiintlanganiso ezilandelayo phambi kokuba irhafu inqunyanyiswe okanye ithotywe.
I-Fed icinga ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kuphakama njani?
ISebe lezaBasebenzi libike ngoLwesibini odlulileyo ukuba i-CPI yanda i-7.1% ngoNovemba ukusuka kunyaka ongaphambili, i-low low for the year, eyenza iinyanga ezintlanu ezilandelelanayo zokunciphisa i-CPI ngonyaka.
Ngaloo nto, uPowell wathi: Kukho "ukuhla okwamkelekileyo" kwixabiso lentengo kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo, kodwa i-Fed idinga ukubona ubungqina obuninzi bokuthi ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwehla;nangona kunjalo, i-Fed iphinde ilindele ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwehla ngokukhawuleza kunyaka ozayo.
Umthombo womfanekiso: Carson
Ngokomlando, i-Fed's tightening cycle cycle ithande ukuyeka xa amaxabiso aphakanyiswa ngaphezu kwe-CPI - i-Fed ngoku isondela kuloo njongo.
Izakutshintshela nini ukucutha ireyithi?
Ngokumalunga nokunyuka kweqondo lokucutha ngo-2023, i-Fed ayizange isenze sicace eso sicwangciso.
U-Powell uthe, "Kuxa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuhla ukuya kutsho kwi-2% kuphela apho siya kuthi sithathele ingqalelo ukwehla kwesantya."
Ngokutsho kukaPowell, eyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu kwisivunguvungu sokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngoku yinkonzo engundoqo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ezi nkcukacha ziphenjelelwa ikakhulu yimarike yabasebenzi eyomeleleyo kunye nokukhula kwemivuzo okuthe gqolo, esona sizathu siphambili sokunyuka kwamaxabiso eenkonzo.
Nje ukuba imarike yezabasebenzi ipholile kwaye ukukhula kwemivuzo kusondela ngokuthe ngcembe kwithagethi yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ngoko ke ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphambili kuya kwehla ngokukhawuleza.
Ngaba siza kubona ukudodobala koqoqosho kulo nyaka uzayo?
Kwisishwankathelo soqikelelo lwezoqoqosho lwekota yamva nje, amagosa e-Federal Reserve aphinde aphakamisa ukulindela kwabo izinga lokungasebenzi kwi-2023 - izinga lokungaqeshwa eliphakathi lilindeleke ukuba linyuke ukuya kwi-4.6 yeepesenti kunyaka ozayo ukusuka kwi-3.7 ekhulwini yangoku.
Umthombo womfanekiso: iFederal Reserve
Ngokwembali, xa intswela-ngqesho inyuka ngolu hlobo, uqoqosho lwase-US luwela ekuwohlokeni.
Ukongeza, i-Federal Reserve iye yanciphisa ingqikelelo yayo yokukhula koqoqosho ngo-2023.
Imarike ikholelwa ukuba olu luphawu olunamandla lokudodobala kwezoqoqosho, ukuba uqoqosho lusengozini yokuwa kunyaka ozayo, kwaye i-Federal Reserve inokunyanzeliswa ukuba inciphise inzala ngo-2023.
Isishwankathelo
Ngokubanzi, i-Federal Reserve iye yanciphisa isantya sokunyuka kwezinga okokuqala, ivula ngokusemthethweni indlela yokunyuka kwesantya esicothayo;kunye nokuhla kancinci kwedatha evela kwi-CPI yomeleza okulindelekileyo ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwanda.
Njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqhubeka kuncipha, i-Fed iyakuyeka ukunyusa amaxabiso kwikota yokuqala yonyaka ozayo;inokuthathela ingqalelo ukwehlisa amazinga kwikota yesine ngenxa yeenkxalabo ezikhulayo zokudodobala koqoqosho.
Ifoto ngetyala: Freddie Mac
Izinga lemali ebolekwayo lizinzile kwindawo ephantsi kwezi nyanga zintathu zidlulileyo, kwaye kunzima ukubona ukunyuka okubalulekileyo kwakhona, kwaye kuya kuthi ngokuthe ngcembe kumothuke.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Dec-26-2022