IGDP ye “Paper Tiger”: Ngaba iphupha leFed lokufika kwindawo ethambileyo liyafezeka?
02/03/2023
Kwakutheni ukuze i-GDP iphumelele okulindelekileyo?
NgoLwesine odlulileyo, idatha yeSebe lezoRhwebo ibonise ukuba i-GDP yokwenyani yase-US ikhule kwi-2.9% kwikota yekota yonyaka odlulileyo, iphantsi kwe-3.2% yokunyuka kwikota yesithathu kodwa ingaphezulu kwe-2.6 yemakethe yangaphambili.
Ngamanye amazwi: ngelixa imarike icinga ukuba ukukhula koqoqosho kuya kuthatha i-2022 enzima ukunyuka kwesantya esiphezulu se-Fed, le GDP iyayingqina: ukukhula koqoqosho kuyancipha, kodwa akunamandla njengoko imarike yayilindele.
Kodwa ngaba oku kunjalo ngokwenene?Ngaba ukukhula koqoqosho kusenamandla kakhulu?
Makhe sijonge ukuba yintoni kanye kanye eqhuba ukukhula koqoqosho.
Umthombo womfanekiso: I-Bureau of Economic Analysis
Ngokwemigaqo yesakhiwo, utyalo-mali oluzinzileyo lwehle nge-1.2% kwaye ibe ngowona mtsalane mkhulu kuhlumo loqoqosho.
Ekubeni ukunyuka kwezinga le-Fed kuqhube iindleko zokuboleka, kuyacaca ukuba utyalo-mali olusisigxina luya kuncipha.
Uluhlu lweempahla lwabucala, kwelinye icala, lube ngoyena mqhubi wohlumo loqoqosho kwikota yesine, lunyuke nge-1.46% ukusuka kwikota edlulileyo, ukubuyisela umva indlela yokuhla yeekota ezintathu ezidlulileyo.
Oku kuthetha ukuba iinkampani ziyaqalisa ukuzalisa uluhlu lwazo lwempahla kunyaka omtsha, ngoko ke ukukhula kolu didi bekungekho ngqiqweni.
Enye isethi yedatha yabamba ingqalelo kwimarike: inkcitho yokusetyenziswa komntu inyuke kuphela nge-2.1% kwikota yesine, ingaphantsi kakhulu kolindelo lwemarike ye-2.9%.
Umthombo womfanekiso: Bloomberg
Njengomqhubi oyintloko wokukhula koqoqosho, ukusetyenziswa kolona didi lukhulu lwe-GDP yase-US (malunga ne-68%).
Ukucotha kwenkcitho yokusetyenziswa komntu siqu kubonisa ukuba amandla okuthenga abuthathaka kakhulu ekugqibeleni kwaye abathengi abanalo ukuzithemba kwikamva lezoqoqosho kwaye abafuni ukuchitha imali yabo yokulondoloza.
Ukongeza, imfuno yangaphakathi (ngaphandle koluhlu lweempahla, inkcitho karhulumente kunye norhwebo) ikhule nge-0.2% kuphela, ukwehla okuphawulekayo ukusuka kwi-1.1% kwikota yesithathu kunye nokunyuka okuncinci ukususela kwikota yesibini ye-2020.
Ukucotha kwemfuno yasekhaya kunye nokusetyenziswa, zezona mpawu zicacileyo zoqoqosho olupholileyo.
USam Bullard, ingcali yezoqoqosho kwi-Wells Fargo Securities, uyavuma ukuba le ngxelo ye-GDP inokuba yeyokugqibela eqinisekileyo, idatha eyomeleleyo yekota esiya kuyibona okwethutyana.
I-Fed's "iphupha libe yinyaniso"?
UPowell uye waphinda wathi ukwehla kwezoqoqosho “kunokwenzeka.”
"Ukuhla okuthambileyo" kuthetha ukuba i-Fed igcina ixabiso eliphezulu lokunyuka kwamaxabiso phantsi kolawulo ngelixa uqoqosho lungabonakali iimpawu zokuhla koqoqosho.
Ngelixa amanani e-GDP angcono kunokulindelekileyo, kufuneka yamkelwe: Uqoqosho luyacotha.
Omnye unokuxoxa ukuba uqoqosho olukwimeko yokudodobala koqoqosho kunzima ukuluphepha, kwaye ukubetha kwe-GDP kuthetha nje ukuba ukwehla koqoqosho kwixesha elizayo kunokuza kamva okanye kwinqanaba elincinci.
Okwesibini, iimpawu zokudodobala koqoqosho zichaphazele ingqesho.
Inani lamabango okuqala e-US yokungaphangeli izibonelelo zehla ukuya kwiinyanga ezilithoba ngoJanuwari, kodwa kwangaxeshanye inani labantu abaqhubeka nokufumana izibonelelo zokungaphangeli zase-US laqala ukunyuka kwakhona.
Oku kuthetha ukuba bambalwa abantu abasandul’ ukungasebenzi, kodwa abantu abaninzi abawufumani umsebenzi.
Ukongeza, ukwehla okumandla kwintengiso yeevenkile kunye nemveliso yefektri kwezi nyanga zimbini zidlulileyo bubungqina bokuba uqoqosho lukwinqanaba elisezantsi lokuhla - uqoqosho lusesendleleni yokudodobala koqoqosho, kwaye iphupha "lokufikela ezantsi" linokuba nzima. ukuphumelela.
Ezinye iingcali zezoqoqosho zikholelwa ukuba i-US inokuba namava "okudodobala koqoqosho": ukuhla okulandelelanayo kwemisebenzi yezoqoqosho kumashishini ahlukeneyo, endaweni yokuwohloka okwexesha elinye.
Kulindeleke ukuthotywa kwenzala kungekudala!
I-Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inkcazo yexabiso, isalathisi sokunyuka kwamaxabiso esinomdla omkhulu kwi-Federal Reserve, yenyuka i-3.2% kwikota yesine ukusuka kunyaka ngaphambili, izinga lokukhula kancinci ukusuka kwi-2020.
Okwangoku, ulindelo lwe-inflation ye-University of Michigan lwe-1 lweminyaka lwaqhubeka luhla ngoJanuwari, luwela kwi-3.9%.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphambili kuye kwaphucula kakhulu, okunciphisa kakhulu uxinzelelo kwi-Federal Reserve - ukunyuka kwamaxabiso angaphezulu kunokuba yimfuneko kwaye ingqwalasela engakumbi inokuhlawulwa ekukhuleni koqoqosho.
Ngokusekwe kwi-GDP, kwelinye icala sibona ukuncipha ngokuthe ngcembe ekukhuleni koqoqosho, kwaye ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa yolindelo olukhulayo lokudodobala koqoqosho, i-Fed iya kuphakamisa kuphela inzala ngokulinganayo kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ukuze kuphunyezwe okona kuthambileyo. ukuhla okunokwenzeka kuqoqosho.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, le nto ingaba yikota yokugqibela yokukhula kwe-GDP eqinile, kwaye ukuba uqoqosho luyancipha kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, i-Fed inokufuneka ihambe ekunciphiseni ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka, kwaye ukuncitshiswa kwexabiso kulindeleke. kungekudala.
Iingcali zezoqoqosho zikwathi ngenxa yenkqubela phambili yetekhnoloji kunye nokucaca komgaqo-nkqubo we-Fed, isiphumo esibambekayo sokunyuka kwamaxabiso singaphantsi kunangaphambili, nto leyo ebangela ukuba iimarike zezimali zilindele amaxabiso ngokweempendulo ezilindelwe yimarike.
Umthombo womfanekiso: Freddie Mac
Njengoko i-Fed icotha isantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso, amaxabiso okubolekwa kwezindlu aye asezantsi, kwaye amakhaya amatsha anyuka kwinyanga yesithathu ngokulandelelana ngoDisemba, ebonisa ukuba imarike yezindlu inokuqalisa ukuchacha.
Ukuba ukucuthwa kwenzala kulindeleke, imarike iya kulindela amaxabiso, kwaye amaxabiso emali-mboleko aya kuwa ngokukhawuleza.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Feb-04-2023