Inyaniso malunga nemarike yomsebenzi, esatshisa emva kokunyuka kwenzala emihlanu
10/14/2022
Idata ye-Nonfarm payrolls igqithile kulindelweyo kwakhona
NgoLwesihlanu, ingxelo ye-nonfarm payroll kaSeptemba ikhutshwe, kwaye yayiyingxelo "eyomelele" yengqesho nangawuphi na umlinganiselo.
Iintlawulo ze-Nonfarm zenyuka nge-263,000 ngoSeptemba, ngaphezu kokulindela kweemarike ze-255,000 kunye nezinga lokungaqeshwa ngokungalindelekanga lawela kwi-3.5%, inqanaba eliphantsi kwiminyaka eyi-50, kwaye ngaphantsi kokulindela kweemarike kwi-3.7%.
Emva kokukhululwa kwale ngxelo, izitokhwe zase-US zawa ngokukhawuleza kwaye isivuno kwi-10-year bonds yase-US yade yafikelela kwinqanaba elitsha, lenyuka ngaphezu kwe-3.9% kwinqanaba elinye.
Idatha elungileyo yezoqoqosho yaphinda yajika yaba ziindaba ezimbi kwiimarike - i-Fed yayinenjongo yokunciphisa imfuno yabasebenzi, eya kupholisa ukukhula komvuzo kwaye ekugqibeleni iyancipha ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Nangona kunjalo, le ngxelo ibonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwezinga le-Fed kwakubonakala ngathi "ayisebenzi" kwaye ayizange ipholise imarike yabasebenzi, ephinda yomeleza ukulindela kwe-Fed enye i-75 ye-point point rate ngoNovemba.
Kwiinyanga nje ezimbalwa, ukususela ngo-Matshi ukuya kuSeptemba, i-Fed yaphakamisa inzala ye-300bp iyonke, kodwa imarike yomsebenzi iye yacotha ukupholisa.
Kutheni imarike yabasebenzi isenamandla emva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso amahlanu alandelelanayo?Esona sizathu siphambili kukulahleka kwedatha.
Inyaniso malunga namanani "anamandla".
Kukho izizathu ezibini zedatha yengqesho enamandla kangaka.
Enye yeyokuba abantu abangazimiselanga ukusebenza abaqukwanga ekubaleni izinga labantu abangaphangeliyo: NgokweSebe lezaBasebenzi, baphantse babe zizigidi ezi-2 abantu abangakwaziyo ukusebenza ngoSeptemba ngenxa yobhubhane - aba bantu abafakwanga kwiinkcukacha-manani zengqesho. .
Okwesibini, ukubala kabini: ngokuqhelekileyo kukho iindlela ezimbini zokubala inani labantu abasebenzayo, uphando lwamakhaya kunye nophando lokusekwa.
Uphando lwasekhaya lusekwe kwinani labantu, ukuba usapho lunabantu ababini abasebenzayo, kukho abantu ababini abaqeshiweyo;uphando lokusekwa, kwelinye icala, lusekelwe kwimisebenzi, ukuba umntu omnye usebenza kumashishini amabini ngexesha elinye, kukho abantu ababini abaqeshiweyo.
Undoqo kukuba idatha yentlawulo ye-nonfarm icaphula idatha yesaveyi yokusekwa, kwaye kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo, ukukhula kwengqesho kwisaveyi yokusekwa kuye kwagqithisa kakhulu kuvavanyo lwasekhaya.
Oku kuthetha ukuba kwezi nyanga zintandathu zidluleyo, liye landa inani labantu abasebenza imisebenzi engaphezu kwesinye ngexesha, yaye abanye kwabo baqeshiweyo “babalwa kabini.”
Ukusuka apha ngasentla, kuyacaca ukuba imarike yabasebenzi emva kwedatha ye-nonfarm payroll ayinakutshisa njengoko ibonakala.
Ngaphezu koko, ukukhula kwentlawulo ye-nonfarm ngoSeptemba yayilolona nyuso luncinci ukususela ngo-Epreli '21, kwaye utshintsho oluncinci kule datha lunokuba lukhulu ngakumbi njengoko ukukhula komsebenzi kuqhubeka ngokucotha.
Imarike yabasebenzi ibonise iimpawu zobuthathaka, kodwa izikhombisi eziphambili zemveli azibonakalisi ezi ziganeko ngexesha elifanelekileyo ngenxa yokungabikho okukhulu kwiinkcukacha zokuqokelela idatha.
Kwakhona sinokujonga kwiinkcukacha zembali.Njengoko unokubona kwitshathi engezantsi, idatha ye-nonfarm payroll ine-reaction "blunted" kwisantya sokunyuka kwe-Fed.
Umthombo wedatha: Bloomberg
Ngokwembali, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso amaninzi kuye kwakwazi ukuthomalalisa indlela enyukayo yokuhlawula iintlawulo ezintsha ezingezizo iifama, kodwa ukuguqulwa kwendlela kuye kwasoloko kuthotywa ukusuka kumjikelo wokunyuka kwesantya.
Oku kuphakamisa ukuba idatha yengqesho iphinda iphendule nge-lag kwi-Fed rate yokunyuka.
Idata ye-nonfarm payrolls iyakukhokela njani ukunyuka kwereyithi
Ukunyusa amaxabiso ngokukhawuleza kunokuba nefuthe elibi kuqoqosho, kwaye i-Fed iyazi kakuhle loo nto, kodwa u-Powell ukhankanya izinga eliphantsi kakhulu lokungaqeshwa kuzo zonke iinkcazo njengobungqina obubalulekileyo bokuba uqoqosho alukho emngciphekweni wokudodobala koqoqosho.
Njengoko besesitshilo ngaphambili, ukunyuka kwesantya se-Fed kuye kwaba nefuthe elibi kwaye ayikafakwa ngokupheleleyo kuqoqosho.
Nangona kunjalo, ukucotha kohlumo lwengqesho nako kuya kuba ngokuthe ngcembe, kunye nemarike yabasebenzi ilandela ukuphola okuthe chu koqoqosho, okukhokelela kumodareyithwa okulandelayo kokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ngeli xesha, i-Fed kusenokwenzeka ukuba icothe okanye imise isantya sokunyuswa kwenzala.
Nangona kunjalo, i-Fed iyaqhubeka nokuhlawula ingqalelo esondeleyo kwingxelo ye-nonfarm payrolls kunye ne-core PCE rate, kwaye i-trend ye-September nonfarm payrolls trend iyaqhubeka nokubonelela ngesiseko se-75bp yezinga lokunyuka ngoNovemba.
Inzala iya kuphinda inyuke kwakhona, kwaye abo bafuna imali-mboleko kufuneka baqale kwangoko ukuphepha ukuphoswa lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuqinisekisa amaxabiso aphantsi.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Oct-15-2022