Ngoba Uyenzile iFed Rwatya Cut May Not Be Far Aindlela
07/06/2022
Umfanekiso oMfutshane oMkhulu: I-Fed iya kubuyisela umva i deflation !
Xa abathengi besonwaba kunyuso “olungazange lubonwe ngaphambili” lwamaxesha onyaka, kuncinci abazi ukuba abathengisi baseMelika bajongana neyona “ngxaki yoluhlu” ukusukela oko kwaqhambuka iqamza le-Intanethi.
NgoMvulo, uMichael Burry, i-protagonist ye-movie ethi "I-Big Short", eyayidume ngokuxela kwangaphambili ingxaki yezoqoqosho ngo-2008, wathi "i-Bullwhip Effect" kwicandelo lokuthengisa liza kubangela ukuguqulwa kwexabiso lenzala ye-Fed.
Ke, yintoni i-Bullwhip Effect?Ibhekisa kukwandiswa kunye nokwahluka kwemfuno kwikhonkco lonikezelo.
Kwi-chain chain, utshintsho oluncinci kwimfuno luya kunyuswa inyathelo ngesinyathelo ukusuka kubathengisi ukuya kubavelisi kunye nababoneleli, kwaye ukwabelana ngolwazi akukwazi ukufezekiswa ngokufanelekileyo phakathi kwabo.Oku kugqwethwa kunye nokwandiswa kolwazi kubonakala ngathi yinkunzi yenkomo ngokomzobo, ngoko ibizwa ngokuba yi "Bullwhip Effect".
Kunyaka ophelileyo, ikhonkco lonikezelo lwehlabathi belinesiphithiphithi.Ngelo xesha, iingxaki zokungabikho kokubonelela okubangelwa ngubhubhane zazinzulu.Abathengisi kunye nabathengisi bevenkile baye baphuthunyiswa ukuthenga iimpahla zokuzalisa uluhlu lwabo lwempahla ngenxa yokoyika ukuba baya kuphelelwa sisitokhwe, nto leyo eyakhokelela ekubeni "i-resonate" kubavelisi bokuqala, ngaloo ndlela benyusa amaxabiso kunye nokwandisa imveliso ngaxeshanye.
Nangona kunjalo, njengoko imfuno yayiphola ngokuthe ngcembe, uluhlu lwempahla lwabathengisi lwanda, kwaye bade bagxalathelana ukususa uluhlu lwezinto ezingaphezulu, nto leyo eyakhokelela ekwehleni ngokukhawuleza kwamaxabiso eemveliso ezininzi eziphambili.
Njengoko izinto ziqhubela phambili, impembelelo ngokuthe ngcembe yangena kwinqanaba eliphambili lokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
NgokukaMichael Burry, ukugqithiswa kwangaphambili kwinqanaba lokuthengisa kukhokelela kwi "Bullwhip Effect".Nangona kunjalo, ngokucotha kwemfuno, i-"Bullwhip Effect" iyaphela kwaye iya kubangela ukuhlanjululwa kamva kulo nyaka.Oku kubangela ukuba i-Fed ibuyisele umva indlela yokuqinisa okanye iqalise kwakhona umgaqo-nkqubo wokunciphisa ubungakanani.
I s t yena" Emva kokuvuselela okokuqala ” umgibe kunzima ukubaleka?
"Emva kovuselelo oluqinileyo lokuqala" ngumgibe oqhelekileyo kumgaqo-nkqubo owadida iibhanki ezininzi zasentshona kwiminyaka yoo-1970 kunye no-1980.Kusawathwaxa amanye amazwe asakhasayo de kube namhlanje.
Ngamafutshane, lo mgibe unokuchazwa njengemigaqo-nkqubo yemali yeBhanki ePhakathi eguqukayo phakathi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphantsi kunye nokukhula okuphezulu ngokuphindaphindiweyo, ekugqibeleni ukuhluleka ukulungelelanisa ezi njongo zimbini.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuba ngokwembali, isiganeko sokuba i-Federal Reserve inqumle inzala ngokukhawuleza emva kokuba isantya sokunyuka singazange senzeke, kwaye singenzeka rhoqo kunokuba unokucinga.
Itshathi engasentla ibonisa i-CPI ephakathi yase-US ekuqaleni komjikelo ngamnye we-Fed's 13 wokunyuka kwezinga kule minyaka ingama-70 idlulileyo, kunye nexabiso le-CPI ekuqaleni komjikelo wokunciphisa inzala emva komjikelo wokunyuka kweqondo lenzala.
Itshathi ibonisa ukuba kudla ngokubakho umsantsa weenyanga ezine phakathi kwesantya sokugqibela seFed sokunyuka kunye nesantya sokuqala sokusikwa.
Ukongezelela, i-CPI ephakathi yayisafikelela kwi-4.4% ngexesha lokunciphisa inzala yokuqala, ebonisa ukuba izigqibo ze-Fed kwizinga lenzala zisekelwe kakhulu ekujongeni phambili kunokuba kwenzekani ngoku.
Ngaphezu koko, kukho amaxesha amaninzi kwimbali xa i-Fed iphinda iqala ukucutha izinga lenzala nangona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuhlala kuphezulu.
Nangona imbali ingaziphindaphindi nje, isoloko inezinto ezifanayo.Abahlalutyi abaninzi bathi kwakunokwenzeka ukuba i-Fed ibuyele kwipatheni yayo yembali "yokunyusa amaxabiso ngaphambi kokuwanciphisa".
Kunokubakho "ukuyeka" kwireyithi ukunyuka kulo nyaka
NgoLwesine, iSebe lezoRhwebo lazisa ukuba i-PCE engundoqo (iNkcitho yoMntu woMntu) Ukukhula kwexabiso lexabiso kuye kwancitshiswa kwi-4.7% ngoMeyi.
Lo mfanekiso ungasentla sisilathisi sokunyuka kwamaxabiso esikhethwa yiFed.Ukuhla kwexabiso lentengo yePCE kuthetha ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngaphandle kokutya kunye namandla akusekho "phezulu," kwaye kukho ubungqina bokuthi ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphezulu.
Ngesivuno seminyaka eyi-10 sisuka kwi-2.973% ukuya kwi-2.889%, akubonakali kulula ukubuyela kwi-3% kwakhona.
Ngaphandle kokuvela kwinqanaba lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, esona sizathu sibaluleke ngakumbi sokuhla kwezivuno zikaNondyebo bubungqina obukhulayo obubonisa ukuba uqoqosho luluhle.
Iimarike sele zijongene nethuba lokuguqulwa komgaqo-nkqubo weFed ngokukhawuleza.
Iingcali zotyalo-mali kwi-Mauldin Economics zicinga ukuba i-Fed inokumisa intlanganiso yayo ekupheleni kukaSeptemba;nangona kunjalo, "ukuyeka" kunokuthetha ukunyuka kwesantya sekota endaweni ye-50 okanye i-75 yesiseko sokunyuka.
Masithi i-Fed ithathele ingqalelo ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphambili kuye kwanciphisa kwaye iyaqonda ngokwenene ukuba uqoqosho luya kuhla.Kwimeko enjalo, banokuphinda baqalise imigaqo-nkqubo yokunciphisa ubungakanani nokuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyasilela ukufikelela ekujoliswe kuko kwesivuno sepesenti ezi-2.
Ngamanye amazwi, mhlawumbi sinokubona i-Fed inciphisa isantya sokuqiniswa ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka, ngelixa ukuguqulwa komgaqo-nkqubo ukuqala ukusika amaxabiso akukho kude.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-07-2022