Umthombo womfanekiso: CNBC

 

Isivuno seminyaka eyi-10 yebhondi yase-US inyuke yaya kuthi ga kwi-4.21% ngo-Oktobha 21, ukuphakama okutsha ukususela ngo-Agasti 2007.

Izivuno zebhondi zase-US ziye zaba ngumba womdla kwiimarike zehlabathi, kwaye ukunyuka okunyukayo kulo nyaka kuthathwe njengomqondiso wesilumkiso, okukhokelela kuguquguquka okumangalisayo kwiimarike zezimali.

Yintoni ehlaselwe luloyiko malunga nokuphuhliswa kwesi salathisi ukuba kukho intengiso kwisiphithiphithi?

 

Kutheni le nto kufuneka ndigxile kwibhondi yase-US yeminyaka eli-10?

Ibhondi yase-US yibhondi ekhutshwe ngurhulumente wase-US, ngokwesiseko ibhili yesithembiso.

Ivunyiwe ngurhulumente wase-US kwaye ithathwa njenge-asethi engenamngcipheko kwihlabathi kwaye ithathelwa ingqalelo kakhulu.

Kwaye izivuno esizibonayo kwiibhondi zase-US zisuka kwizibalo ezifanelekileyo.

Ngokomzekelo, ixabiso langoku le-10 ye-bond yase-US yi-88.2969 kunye nereyithi yekhuphoni yi-2.75%.Oko kuthetha ukuba uthenge le bhondi ngelo xabiso kwaye uyibambe ekuvuthweni, ingeniso yenzala yi-$ 2.75 ngonyaka, kunye neentlawulo ezimbini zenzala ngonyaka, kwaye ukuba uyayikhulula ekukhuleni kwixabiso lekhuphoni, imbuyekezo yakho yonyaka yi-4.219%.

Kwangaxeshanye, amatyala exeshana elifutshane e-US asemngciphekweni kakhulu kwiimpembelelo zopolitiko nezorhwebo, ngelixa ityala lexesha elide lase-US aliqinisekanga kwaye alikho mthethweni.

Ibhondi yase-US yeminyaka elishumi yeyona isebenzayo kuzo zonke izinto ezivuthwayo kwaye ikwasisiseko semilinganiselo yemali-mboleko yebhanki, kubandakanywa nokubambisa, kunye nezivuno kuzo zonke iindidi zee-asethi.

Ngenxa yoko, isivuno sebhondi yase-US yeminyaka eli-10 yamkelwa ngokubanzi “njengesantya esingenamngcipheko” esimisela umda osezantsi kwizivuno ze-asethi kwaye ithathwa “njenge-ankile” yexabiso le-asethi.

Ukunyuka okubukhali kwamva nje kwi-US bond izivuno kuyaqhubeka ubukhulu becala ngenxa ye-Federal Reserve eqhubekayo yokunyuswa kwenzala.

Ke yintoni kanye kanye ubudlelwane phakathi kokunyuswa kwenzala kunye nokunyuka kwezivuno ze-Treasury bond?

Kumjikelo wokunyuka kwezinga: amaxabiso ebhondi ahamba ngokusondeleyo kunye nokuvela kwezinga lokukhutshwa.

Ukunyuka kwexabiso lenzala kwiibhondi ezintsha kukhokelela ekuthengisweni kweebhondi ezindala, ukuthengiswa kwempahla kukhokelela ekunciphiseni kwamaxabiso eebhondi, kwaye ukuhla kwamaxabiso kukhokelela ekunyuseni kwemveliso ekuvuthweni.

Ngamanye amazwi, inzala efanayo eyayidla ngokuthenga i-99 yeedola ngoku ithengela i-95 yeedola.Kumtyalo-mali oyithengayo nge-95 yeedola, isivuno sokuvuthwa siyanda.

 

Kuthekani ngemarike yezindlu?

Ukutsiba kwesivuno kwiibhondi zase-US zeminyaka eli-10 kunyuse amaxabiso emali-mboleko.

Umthombo womfanekiso: Freddie Mac

 

NgoLwesine odlulileyo, uFreddie Mac wabika ukuba inzala ye-30-year mortgage yenyuka ukuya kwi-6.94%, esongela ukuphula yonke into ebalulekileyo ye-7%.

Umthwalo wokuthenga ikhaya ukwinqanaba eliphezulu.Ngokwe-Federal Reserve Bank yase-Atlanta, umndilili womzi wase-US ngoku kufuneka uchithe isiqingatha sengeniso yawo ekuthengeni ikhaya, phantse kathathu kwiminyaka emibini.

Umfanekiso wekhredithi: Redfin

 

Ukunikezelwa komthwalo onzima ekuthengeni ikhaya, ukuthengiswa kwezindlu kuye kwamiswa: Ukuthengiswa kwezindlu kuye kwawa kwinyanga yesibhozo elandelelanayo ngoSeptemba, kwaye imfuno yokubolekwa kwemali yawela kwinqanaba eliphantsi kwiminyaka engama-25.

Kude kubekho utshintsho ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso emali-mboleko, kunzima ukucinga ukuba i-real estate market iyabuyiswa.

Ngoko ke sinokwenza uqikelelo lwamaxabiso emali-mboleko ukusuka kuphuhliso lwezivuno ze-Treasury zeminyaka eyi-10.

 

Siya kufika nini incopho?

Ukujonga imijikelezo yembali yokunyuka kweqondo, i-10 yeminyaka ye-bond ye-US igqithise iqondo lokugqibela lokunyuka kwincopho yomjikelo wokunyuka komyinge.

I-dot plot yentlanganiso yezinga likaSeptemba ibonisa ukuba ukuphela komjikelezo wokunyuka kwangoku kuya kuba malunga ne-4.5 - 5%.

Nangona kunjalo, isivuno kwiibhondi zase-US zeminyaka eli-10 kufuneka sibe nendawo yokunyuka.

Ukongeza, kwimijikelo yokunyuswa kwenzala kwiminyaka engama-40 edlulileyo, isivuno seminyaka eli-10 yeebhondi zase-US siqhele ukunyukela phezulu malunga nekota phambi komlinganiselo wepolisi.

Oku kuthetha ukuba isivuno kwiibhondi zase-US zeminyaka eyi-10 ziya kuba ngowokuqala ukuwa ngaphambi kokuba i-Fed iyeke ukunyusa inzala.

Amaxabiso emali-mboleko nawo aya kuyibuyisela umva indlela yawo yokunyuka ngelo xesha.

 

Kwaye ngoku isenokuba “yeyona yure yobumnyama ngaphambi kokusa.”