Ngaba uPowell uza kuba nguVolcker wesibini?
06/23/2022
Ukuphupha emva kwe 1970s
NgoLwesithathu, i-Federal Reserve inyuse izinga lenzala ngamanqaku angama-75, eyona ntshukumo inkulu malunga namashumi amathathu eminyaka ukunqanda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu.
Kutshanje, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kukwiqondo leminyaka engama-40 kangangeenyanga ezininzi kwinto enokuthiwa “lixesha elide” lokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu, nto leyo ekhumbuza intlekele yokunyuka kwamaxabiso engazange ibonwe ngaphambili eyaqhambuka ngeminyaka yee-1970.
Ngelo xesha, izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US lalikhe lanyuka laya kutsho kwi-15%, ukukhula kwe-GDP kwehla, izinga lentswelo-ngqesho lanyuka.Nangona kunjalo, iFederal Reserve yaguquguquka phakathi kokujongana nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nengqesho, nto leyo ekhokelele ekwenyukeni kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokudodobala kokukhula koqoqosho.
YayinguPaul Volcker, ngoko usihlalo weFederal Reserve, owanceda ngokwenene i-US ukuba ikhuphe intlupheko yayo ngeminyaka yoo-1980 - woyisa zonke iimbono eziphikisayo waza wamisela imigaqo-nkqubo yobungqongqo ngamandla adumayo.Izinga lokungaphangeli linyuke ukusuka kwi-6% ukuya kwi-11% ngexesha elifutshane emva kokunyusa inzala ngaphezulu kwe-10%.
Emva phayaa, abasebenzi bokwakha bathumela kuye iibhloko ezinkulu zamaplanga bekhalazela uqhankqalazo, abathengisi beenqwelo-mafutha bamthumelela izitshixo zeemoto ezintsha awayengazifuni, yaye amafama akwiitrektara akhwaza ngaphandle kwesakhiwo sebhastile esimhlophe seFederal Reserve.Kodwa akukho nanye kwezi eye yatshintsha uMnu Volcker.
Emva kwexesha, wanyusa inqanaba lenzala ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-20%, ethoba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngelo xesha, intlekele yakwazi ukusondela esiphelweni, uqoqosho lwabuyiselwa umva kwindlela, ekwathi yabeka isiseko kumashumi eminyaka alandelayo. yempumelelo.
Ngaba umzuzu weVolcker uyeza?
Ukutsiba kwe-Fed kumazinga enzala ukususela ngo-Matshi kwenza iimarike zingcangcazele: umzuzu weVolcker ufikile kwakhona.
Nangona kunjalo, kunomdla ukuba i-Fed ngokwayo ayizange ibonise ngokucacileyo i-75BP umqondiso wokunyuka kwexabiso kwimarike ngobusuku bale ntlanganiso yezinga, kwaye kunengqiqo ukutsho ukuba umsebenzi wawungaphezu kokulindela.
Kodwa ukusukela nge-15 kaJuni, imakethi inexabiso elipheleleyo kule nqanaba lokunyuka, ngomhla wokunyuka kwesantya, intengiso yafakwa kwiindaba ezingathandekiyo kwaye izitokhwe zase-US kunye neebhondi zavuka kunye.
Iingcambu ezibangela le nto kukuba idatha ye-CPI igqithise ukulindela kakhulu kunye nengxelo kwi-Wall Street Journal - iphephancwadi eyaziwa ngokuba yi "Federal Reserve News Agency".
Ingxelo yabonisa ukuba uchungechunge lweengxelo eziphazamisayo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiintsuku zamva nje zinokuthi zikhokele amagosa e-Fed ukuba aqwalasele i-75 engalindelekanga yokunyuka kwezinga lokunyuka kwamanani kule ntlanganiso yeveki.
Eli nqaku libangele isiphithiphithi kwimarike, kwaye namashishini amakhulu uGoldman Sachs kunye noJPMorgan balandela ukhokelo lwakhe kwaye bahlaziya uqikelelo lwabo ngobusuku.
Imarike yaqala ukukhawuleza ixabiso kwi-75 yezinga lokunyuka kwe-BP kule ntlanganiso yezinga, kwaye isantya esilindelekileyo se-Fed sokunyuka ngoJuni ngokukhawuleza sathumela i-propability ye-75 yesiseko sokunyuka ukuya kwi-90%, esazi ukuba inani laliyi-3.9% kuphela. kwiveki ephelileyo.
Ukususela ngoko, kubonakala ngathi i-Fed ikhokelwa yimarike: inyuse amaxabiso ngamanqaku angama-75 ngaphandle kokwenza "ukulindela" kwangaphambili.
Ukongeza, uPowell uphinde wakhupha imiyalezo edidayo kwinkomfa: Amanqaku angama-75 amanqanaba okunyuka kwezinga angeke aqheleke ukubonwa, kodwa enye i-75bp ukunyuka kwakunokwenzeka ngoJulayi.Wayecinga ukuba ukulindela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwabathengi kujongene nemingcipheko evela kwi-inflation ye-headline, kodwa okwangoku, wathi kwakhona izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso elikhoyo alizange lichaphazele ukulindela nayiphi na indlela ebalulekileyo.
Iintetho ezibhidayo kunye neempendulo ezingaqondakaliyo kunye nomlinganiselo wokutyhala zonke izigqibo kwidatha eyalandelayo yenze kwanzima ngathi ukubona ubunzima obufanayo kunye nokuqina kumlo ochasene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezisuka kuPowell njengoVolcker.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, eyona nto iyoyika kakhulu imarike ayikokunyuka kwesantya, kodwa yiFed ebhidayo ngakumbi.
Ziziphi iimeko ezinokuphela i ukunyuka kwexabiso?
Ngo-Matshi, i-FOMC dot plot ibonise ukuba i-Fed iya kuphakamisa amaxabiso ngokuthe ngcembe kwiminyaka emibini ezayo;ngelixa i-FOMC dot plot yangoku ibonisa ukuba emva kokunyuka kwezinga elikhulu kulo nyaka kunye nokunyuka kwesantya esincinci kunyaka ozayo, i-Fed kulindeleke ukuba iqalise ukusika amaxabiso kunyaka emva koko.
Kodwa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukuqina, ukukhula kwakha "unxantathu ongenakwenzeka", i-FOMC yaphinda yagxininisa ukuba ukusombulula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso yinjongo ephambili, ukuba injongo ephambili yangoku kukukhusela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokunciphisa, ngoko ke ukwehla kwezoqoqosho kunokwenzeka ukuba kungenakuphepheka.
Ukugcina ukunyuka kwamaxabiso phantsi kolawulo kusoloko kungumdlalo, ukhumbula ukuba izenzo zikaMnu Volcker ziye zakhatshwa kukuhla koqoqosho kabini, kwaye uye wabonisa ukubaluleka kwe-Fed ukugcina uzinzo lwexabiso.Kuphela ngokugcina uzinzo lwexabiso kuya kubakho ukukhula okuqinileyo kwexesha elide.
Ngoku kubonakala ngathi kukho ukuphucuka okubalulekileyo kuphela kokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukunyuka okubukhali kwentswela-ngqesho, okanye imeko yezoqoqosho okanye yentengiso iya kuyinqanda i-Fed.
Kodwa njengoko i-arhente ezininzi zikhupha izilumkiso zokudodobala koqoqosho, imakethi inokuqalisa kancinci kancinci ukuseka amaxabiso kwimingcipheko esezantsi kuqoqosho, kwaye sinokulindela ukubona i-10 yeminyaka ye-bond ye-US ibuyela umva ingaphantsi kwe-2.5% nangaphambi kokuphela konyaka.
Noko ke, ubumnyama bangaphambi kokusa busenokuba bobona bunzima.
Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jun-23-2022