12/30/2022

Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyaqhubeka kuphola!

"Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso" lelona gama libalulekileyo kuqoqosho lwase-US ngo-2022.

 

I-Consumer Price Index (CPI) inyukile kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka, kwaye amaxabiso anyuka kwibhodi yonke, ukusuka kwipetroli ukuya kwinyama, amaqanda, ubisi kunye nezinye izinto ezisisiseko.

Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, njengoko i-US Federal Reserve iqhubekile nokunyusa amaxabiso enzala kunye neengxaki kwikhonkco lonikezelo lwehlabathi ngokuthe ngcembe ziphucuka, ukonyuka kwe-CPI inyanga nenyanga kuye kwacotha kancinci, kodwa ukunyuka konyaka kusekho. ngokucacileyo, ngakumbi izinga elingundoqo le-CPI lihlala liphezulu, nto leyo eyenza abantu bakhathazeke ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunokuhlala kumanqanaba aphezulu ixesha elide.

Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okutsha nje kubonakala kuvakalise "iindaba ezilungileyo" ezininzi, i-CPI inqabile indlela iya icace kwaye icace.

 

Ukulandela ukukhula okucothayo kunokulindela kwe-CPI ngoNovemba kunye nezinga lokukhula eliphantsi lonyaka, isalathisi sokunyuka kwamaxabiso esithandwa kakhulu se-Fed, i-core personal use expenditures (PCE) index ngaphandle kokutya kunye namandla, iyancipha kwinyanga yesibini ngokulandelelana.

Ukongeza, uphando lweYunivesithi yaseMichigan lokulindela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kubathengi kunyaka ozayo lwehle ngaphaya kobekulindelekile ukuya kwinqanaba elitsha eliphantsi ukususela ngoJuni ophelileyo.

Njengoko ubona, idatha yamva nje ibonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US kunqabile ngokwenene, kodwa ngaba lo mqondiso uya kuhlala kwaye uza kuziphatha njani ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngo-2023?

 

IsiShwankathelo esikhulu sokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngo-2022

Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kulo nyaka, iUnited States ifumene uhlobo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezenzeka kanye kuphela kumashumi amane eminyaka, kwaye ubukhulu kunye nexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso likhulu ngokwembali.

(a) Nangona i-Fed inyuka ngokungapheliyo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyaqhubeka kudlula ukulindela kweemarike - i-CPI ifikelele kwi-9.1% ngonyaka-ngonyaka ngoJuni kwaye iye yacotha ukuhla.

I-CPI yexabiso lentengo inyuke yaya kutsho kwi-6.6% ngoSeptemba ngaphambi kokuba yehle kancinane yaya kutsho kwi-6.0% ngoNovemba, isengaphezulu kwe-2% ekujoliswe kuyo kwi-Federal Reserve ye-inflation.

Phonononga izizathu zokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezikhoyo ngoku, ezibangelwa ikakhulu yindibaniselwano yemfuno emandla kunye nokunqongophala kobonelelo.

Kwelinye icala, imigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente yokuvuselela imali engaqhelekanga ukusukela oko ubhubhani uphembelele imfuno eyomeleleyo yabathengi luluntu.

Kwelinye icala, ukunqongophala kwabasebenzi kunye nonikezelo lwasemva kobhubhani kunye neempembelelo zongquzulwano ngokwezelizwe kukhokelele ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso eempahla neenkonzo, okuthe kwandiswa kukuqiniswa kancinci kancinci konikezelo.

Ukuchithwa kwamacandelwana e-CPI: amandla, iirenti, umvuzo "imililo emithathu" yokulandelelana kokunyuka kunye kwi-inflationary fever ayipheli.

 

Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, ibikukunyuka kwexabiso kumandla kunye nemveliso eqhube iCPI iyonke yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ngelixa kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiinkonzo ezinjengerenti kunye nemivuzo kukongamele ukunyuka kokunyuka kwamaxabiso.

 

2023 Ezona zizathu zithathu ziyakulibuyisela umva izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso

Okwangoku, zonke izibonakaliso zibonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuke kakhulu, kwaye izinto eziqhuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngo-2022 ziya kuncipha ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye i-CPI ngokubanzi iya kubonisa ukuhla kwexabiso ngo-2023.

Okokuqala, izinga lokukhula kwenkcitho yabathengi (PCE) liya kuqhubeka licotha.

Inkcitho yokusetyenziswa komntu kwimpahla ngoku iwile inyanga nenyanga kwiikota ezimbini ngokulandelana, okuya kuba yinto ephambili eqhuba ukuhla kwexabiso lentengo kwixesha elizayo.

Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokunyuka kweendleko zokuboleka ngenxa yokunyuka kwexabiso lenzala ye-Fed, kusenokubakho ukuhla okungakumbi kusetyenziso lomntu.

 

Okwesibini, unikezelo lwabuyela ngokuthe ngcembe.

Idatha evela kwi-New York Fed ibonisa ukuba i-Global Supply Chain Stress Index iqhubekile nokuwa ukususela kwixesha layo lonke eliphezulu kwi-2021, ebonisa ukuhla okungaphezulu kwexabiso lempahla.

Okwesithathu, ukunyuka kwerenti kuqalise inguqu.

Ukunyuka okuthe gqolo okuthe gqolo kwe-Federal Reserve ngo-2022 kubangele ukuba amaxabiso emali ebolekiweyo axhume kwaye amaxabiso ezindlu ehle, nto leyo eye yathoba irenti, kunye nesalathiso serenti ngoku sehla iinyanga ezininzi zilandelelana.

Ngokwembali, iirenti ziqhelekile malunga neenyanga ezintandathu ngaphambi koko kunerente yendawo yokuhlala kwiCPI, ke ngoko ukuhla okungaphezulu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kulandela, okukhokelwe kukuhla kweerenti.

Ngokusekelwe kule miba ingentla, isantya sonyaka sokukhula kwexabiso lentengo kulindeleke ukuba sehle ngokukhawuleza kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ozayo.

Ngokutsho kwe-forex ye-Goldman Sachs, i-CPI iya kuwa kancinane ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-6% kwikota yokuqala kwaye ikhawuleze kwikota yesibini neyesithathu.

 

Kwaye ekupheleni kuka-2023, i-CPI mhlawumbi iya kuwa ngaphantsi kwe-3%.

Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS;enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke.Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile.Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.