Iindaba zeshishini
Enye i-Twist! Ukukhula kwe-GDP Kudlula Ulindelo, Ngaba iNqanaba eliSikiwe lisekhona kwiThebhile?
Inkcazo yexabiso le-PCE yekota yonyaka yekota yekota ye-Q2 yafika kwi-2.9%, idlula i-2.7% elindelekileyo, kodwa iphantsi kwexabiso langaphambili le-3.7%.
Ukulandela ukukhutshwa kwedatha, imveliso ye-10 yeminyaka kaNondyebo yanyuka ngokufutshane ngaphambi kokuhlehla kancinane, kunye nesivuno samva nje sisahamba malunga ne-4.2%.
Abaqhubi boHlumo lweGDP
Ukuyichitha, abaxhasi abaphambili ekukhuleni kwe-Q2 GDP yayiyinkcitho yabathengi, i-inventory yangaseseutyalo-mali, kunye notyalo-mali olusisigxina olungahlaliyo.
Utyalo-mali kwi-inventri yabucala ngokuqhelekileyo ibhekisa kwisitokhwe sempahla egcinwe ngamashishini ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zemveliso kunye neentengiso, kuquka imathiriyeli ekrwada, umsebenzi osaqhubekayo, kunye nempahla egqityiweyo.
Utyalo-mali olusisigxina olungahlaliyo ludla ngokubhekisa kutyalo-mali kwii-asethi ezisisigxina ngeenjongo ezingezozakuhlala, ezifana nezindlu zorhwebo, izakhiwo zeofisi, iifektri, njl.
Phakathi kwezi, ukusetyenziswa komntu siqu kuneyona mpembelelo ibalulekileyo kwi-GDP, ikhula nge-1.57%, ukunyuka okuphawulekayo ukusuka kwikota yangaphambili kwi-0.98%.
Igalelo lokukhula kwe-inventri yabucala nayo yabona ukunyuka okukhulu, ukusuka kwi--0.42% kwi-Q1 ukuya kwi-0.82%. Igalelo likarhulumente kwi-GDP ngokufanayo linyuke ukusuka kwi-0.31% ukuya kwi-0.53%.
Idatha yangoku yezoqoqosho icebisa ukuba i-US isendleleni yokufikelela "ukufikela okuthambileyo" - ukukhula koqoqosho oluzinzileyo ngelixa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kuphola ngokuthe ngcembe. Olu lindelo lunempembelelo entleEZIukuzithemba kwimarike.
Ngaba Kusenokwenzeka Ukucuthwa Kwexabiso?
Ngaphandle kokukhula koqoqosho olungcono kunoko bekulindelekile, ulindelo lokuthotywa kwesantya akukabuyi umva. Ngokutsho kwedatha yeQela le-CME, ukunqunyulwa kwezinga ngoSeptemba kuphantse kuqiniseke, kunye nethuba le-100%. Amathuba okuthotywa kweqondo okuthathu kulo nyaka nawo afikelele phantse kuma-60%.
Ngokucacileyo, intlanganiso yomgaqo-nkqubo we-Federal Reserve ngoJulayi 30 iya kuba nefuthe kakhulu kwimarike, kwaye njengedatha yakutshanje, kukho ithuba le-6.7% lokuba i-Fed iya kubhengeza ukucuthwa kwezinga kwintlanganiso kaJulayi.
Kuyathakazelisa ukuba, owayesakuba nguMongameli we-New York Fed uWilliam Dudley usandul 'ukutshintsha isimo sakhe sangaphambili se-hawkish, ebonisa ukuba i-Fed inokunciphisa amaxabiso kwintlanganiso kaJulayi.
Umlandeli wakhe eGoldman Sachs, uJan Hatzius, naye wabuza kwingxelo yangaphambili, "Kutheni ulinde kude kube ngoSeptemba?" Iingxelo zoluntu ezinjalo ezivela kubantu abadumileyo zibonakala zenza ukuba i-Fed ikhawuleze ukunciphisa amaxabiso.
Ukongeza kwintlanganiso yomgaqo-nkqubo ezayo, i-Jackson Hole Symposium ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti nayo ifanelekile ukubukela.
USihlalo we-Fed uJerome Powell kungenzeka ukuba abonise utshintsho kulawulo lomngcipheko kwi-symposium, efana nonyaka odlulileyo, mhlawumbi ukubonelela ngesakhelo sokuvavanya ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokuqwalasela impembelelo yomgaqo-mali wezoqoqosho ngokwenene. Oku kunokusebenza "njengenkxaso yethiyori" yokucuthwa kwereyithi ngoSeptemba kwaye kubonelele ngebenchmark yokuphunyezwa komgaqo-nkqubo wexesha eliphakathi kunyaka ozayo, mhlawumbi ngohlalutyo lwemeko okanye imida yedatha.
Ekubeni i-Federal Reserve ibhengeze ukunyuka kwamanqaku angama-25 kwi-benchmark yezinga lenzala ngo-Matshi 17, i-2022, umjikelo wokunyusa umlinganiselo oqhubekayo uye wathatha iminyaka emibini kwaye usondela ekupheleni. Siza kuqhubeka ukubeka esweni uphuhliso lwexesha elizayo ngononophelo.