Ukuwa kweMarike! IMarike yaseJapan ibona ukwehla kwembali: Kwenzeke ntoni?

Nge-5 ka-Agasti, iimarike zezimali zehlabathi zibone isiganeko esothusayo: Imarike yemasheya yaseJapan yafumana ukuhla kwayo okukhulu ngosuku olunye kwimbali. I-Nikkei Index yehla nge-12.4% ngosuku olunye, yacima amanqaku angama-4,451, ukwehla okukhulu kunoMvulo omnyama ngo-1987.

Kwiintsuku nje ezimbalwa zokurhweba, ukuhla okunyukayo kwafikelela kwi-26%. Oku ngequbulisoI-CRAsh ayizange ishukumise iJapan kuphela kodwa ibangele ukusabela kwekhonkco kwiimarike zehlabathi. I-South Korea kunye neemarike ze-stock yaseTaiwan nazo zehla nge-9%, ngelixa i-indices ezinkulu zase-US zehle malunga ne-3%. Ngoko, yintoni kanye kanye eyabangela esi saqhwithi semali?

Ikrele Elintlangothi-mbini leYen Phatha uRhwebo

Ukuze uqonde ukuhla kwamvanje kwimarike yamasheya yaseJapan, ubani kufuneka aqale aqonde ukurhweba ngeyen.

Ixesha elide, ngenxa yenzala ephantsi kakhulu yeyen, abatyali-zimali behlabathi baboleke izixa ezikhulu zeeyen kwaye baziguqulela kwiimali ezivelisa imveliso ephezulu ukuze bafumane umahluko kwinzala.

Nangona kunjalo, olu rhwebo lwe-arbitrage olubonakala lungenamngcipheko lufihla imingcipheko ebalulekileyo. Xa ulwahlulo lwenzala phakathi kweyen kunye nedola lutshintsha, lo mzekelo we-arbitrage unokukhawuleza ukuwa. NgoMatshi walo nyaka, iBhanki yaseJapan iphumeze ukunyuka kwayo okokuqala kwiminyaka eyi-17, iphelisa umgaqo-nkqubo wenzala ombi.

NgoJulayi 31st, iJapan yaphakamisa amaxabiso kwakhona, ngelixa kwangaxeshanye, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US kupholile, okukhokelela kwimarike ukuba ilindele ngokubanzi iFederal.Gcinaukunciphisa amaxabiso ngoSeptemba.

Olu chungechunge lwezenzo lukhokelela ngokuthe ngqo ekunciphiseni umlinganiselo wenzala phakathi kwe-yen kunye nedola, ukujongela phantsi isiseko se-yen ukuthwala amashishini. Abatyalomali baqala ukuthenga izixa ezikhulu ze-yen kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle ukuze babuyisele imali yabo ye-yen, ebangela ukuba i-yen inyuke nge-12% kwidola kwinyanga enye.

Isiphumo seBuffett

Kwesi saqhwithi sezemali, abatyali-mali bamazwe ngamazwe, kuquka uWarren Buffett, badlale indima ekwandiseni imeko. Ngexesha lobhubhani wowama-2020, uBuffett waqala ukutyala imali kwimarike yesitokhwe yaseJapan, ethenga uthotho lwezabelo ezinezabelo eziphezulu. Ngo-2023, uBuffett waphinda wanyusa utyalo-mali lwakhe kwimakethi yesitokhwe yaseJapan, nto leyo eyabangela umdla wabatyali-zimali behlabathi kwizitokhwe zaseJapan.

Ngo-2023, ukuthengwa kwentsalela ngabatyali-mali baphesheya kwimarike yemasheya yaseJapan kudlule kwi-3 yezigidi zezigidi zeedola, ukutyhala i-Nikkei 225 Index inyuke nge-28% ngonyaka. NgoMatshi ka-2024, isalathiso sasisele sityhutyhe umqobo wamanqaku angama-40,000, ngokunyuka okuphantse kube ngama-80%.

Nangona uqoqosho lwaseJapan lungakhange lubuyele ngokupheleleyo, imarike yemasheya yaseJapan ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu lembali, eliqhutywa ikakhulu ngabatyali-mali bamazwe ngamazwe.

Nangona kunjalo, njengoko umyinge we-yen unyuka kunye nokuncitshiswa kwexabiso elilindelekileyo lase-US lidibene ngexesha lembali, abatyali-mali bamazwe ngamazwe baqala ukuthengisa kakhulu izitokhwe zaseJapan, nto leyo eyabangela ukudodobala kwemarike. Kwimakethi eyehla ngokukhawuleza, utyalo-mali oluxhaphakileyo luye lwanyanzeleka ukuba lubhangiswe, nto leyo ekhokelele ekwehleni okukhawulezileyo kunye nothotho lweziphumo zokwehla. Ngaloo ndlela, intlekele engokwembali kwimarike yamasheya yaseJapan yazalwa.

Ikamva elizayo

Emva kwengozi, iBhanki yaseJapan iSekela likaRhuluneli uShinichi Uchida ngokukhawuleza yathi, "Asiyi kuphakamisa amaxabiso phantsi kweemeko zemarike yezemali ezingazinzanga." Ngelixa le nkcazo ibonelele ngesiqabu sexeshana elifutshane kwimarike, ulindelo lwexesha elide lokunyuswa kwamaxabiso yiBhanki yaseJapan kubonakala kungenakuguqulwa.

Ngeli xesha, idatha yamva nje evela kwiSebe lezeMisebenzi lase-US ibonise ukuhla okuphawulekayo kwamabango okuqala okungabikho kwemisebenzi, ukuhla okukhulu ngonyaka, okubonisa ukuphucuka kwemarike yomsebenzi. Le datha ime ngokwahlukileyo kwiveki ephelileyo, ethe yavusa iingxoxo malunga nokudodobala koqoqosho okunokwenzeka kwe-US.

Ukujonga kwimakethi yebhondi, oku kukhokelele ekudiphukeni okubalulekileyo okulandelwa kukuphinda-phinda kwizivuno ezingaphezulu kwe-4%.

Nangona kunjalo, kwixesha elide, ulindelo lwemarike yokunciphisa izinga le-Federal Reserve liya liqina. Amathuba okucuthwa komgangatho we-50-siseko-point ngoSeptemba uye wenyuka ukusuka kwi-22% ngeveki edlulileyo ukuya kwi-56.5% kutshanje. Ngaphezulu kwe-70% yemarike ikholelwa ukuba kukho ithuba elingaphezulu kwe-78% yokunciphisa izinga elipheleleyo ngaphezu kwamanqaku esiseko se-100 kulo nyaka.

Umkhwa wokuthotywa kwexabiso lase-US ubonakala ungenakuthintelwa, phantse uqinisekisa ukuba i-boom kwimarike yemasheya yaseJapan iphelile. Indlela izinto eziza kukhula ngayo ngokulandelayo kusaza kubonakala.

Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS; enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume. Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke. Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye. Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile. Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.