Ukumisela Ilizwi Lokunciphisa Ixabiso likaSeptemba? Intetho kaPowell kwiVeki elandelayo ye-Jackson Hole Symposium Ivutha Ulindelo lweMarike!

Ngomhla wama-23 ka-Agasti, iFederalGcinaUsihlalo uJerome Powell uya kunika intetho ephambili kwi-Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, isiganeko esiye saba yinto ephambili kwiimarike zemali zehlabathi. Njengomthendeleko wonyaka webhanki ephakathi, kulindeleke ukuba ibeke ithoni yesigqibo sezinga likaSeptemba kwaye iya kuba ngumzuzu obalulekileyo ekumiseleni umgaqo-mali wexesha elizayo.

Iingcambu zeMbali zikaJackson Hole
UJackson Hole, idolophu encinci ejikelezwe ziintaba zekhephu, yamkela "abahambi" behlabathi lezemali rhoqo ngo-Agasti. Esi sithethe saqala ngowe-1982 xa uSihlalo weFed ngoko ngelo xesha uPaul Volcker, umlobi okhutheleyo weempukane, wakhetha le ndawo yentlanganiso.

UVolcker wayengengomlobi onobuchule kuphela kodwa wayekwangumhlaziyi obalaseleyo womgaqo-lawulo wemali. Ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu, wakhe wanyusa inzala ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-20% ngexesha elinye, sucEZIukuthomalalisa ukuhla kwamandla emali okuxhaphakileyo ngolawulo olulindelekileyo.

Ukusukela ngoko, iJackson Hole Symposium iye yaba yintsomi kwilizwe lezemali, ngezigqibo ezininzi ezikhulu ezifakwe apha. Ngexesha lengxaki yaseRussia ngo-1998, uSihlalo weFed ngoko u-Alan Greenspan wadibana ngokufihlakeleyo noongameli be-Fed bengingqi ngexesha lenkomfa, ekhokelela ekuthotyweni kweqondo eliqinisekileyo. Kwi-2010, uBen Bernanke ubhengeze ukuzalwa kwe-QE2 apha, emangalisa ihlabathi.

Umzuzu kaPowell's Jackson Hole
Kunyaka ophelileyo, intetho kaPowell kwi-Symposium ye-Jackson Hole ibonise isimo se-hawkish, iqinisekisa kwakhona i-2% ekujoliswe kuyo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokubonisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso xa kuyimfuneko.

Noko ke, amaxesha atshintshile. Uqoqosho lwangoku lujongene nokukhula okucothayo, kwaye uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso sele lunciphile, olukhokelela ekubeni imarike ilindele ngokubanzi ukuba i-Fed iqalise umjikelo wokunciphisa izinga.

Intetho kaPowell ngeli xesha inokugxila kwimeko yezoqoqosho yangoku, ukusebenza kwemarike yabasebenzi, kunye nembono yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Ukuthathela ingqalelo uphuculo lwakutsha nje kwiintengiso kunye nedatha yamabango okuqala okungasebenzi, unokubonelela ngovavanyo olulungeleleneyo lwenkangeleko yezoqoqosho. Okwangoku, imarike iya kukhangela imikhondo malunga nobungakanani bokuncitshiswa kwezinga, kucingelwa ukuba kuya kubakho ukunqunyulwa kwe-50-based point engalindelekanga.

Kunyaka ophelileyo, umxholo wentetho kaPowell wawuthi "I-Economic Outlook," egxininisa ukuqhubeka nokuzinza komgaqo-mali wezemali. Kulo nyaka, unokwakhela kweso siseko, echaza ngakumbi malunga novavanyo lwe-Fed yemeko yezoqoqosho yangoku kunye nezicwangciso zokuphendula.

Impembelelo enokubakho
Imbali ngoyena titshala ubalaseleyo. Yonke intetho ebalulekileyo kwi-Jackson Hole Symposium ikhatshwe kukuguquguquka okumangalisayo kwemarike. Intetho kaBernanke ye-QE2 ngo-2010 yafaka isivuseleli esinamandla kwiimarike zezimali zehlabathi; icebiso lakhe 2012 of "QE ngokungenasiphelo" wathumela imarike kwi ride roller coaster. Intetho kaPowell ye-hawkish kunyaka ophelileyo nayo yabangela ukuguquguquka okukhulu kweemarike.

Ukuba intetho kaPowell ngeli xesha ibonisa ukuhla kwexabiso elicacileyo, imarike inokutolika njengempendulo yokunciphisa ukukhula koqoqosho, ngaloo ndlela iphakamisa ii-asethi zomngcipheko. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba intetho ixhomekeke kwi-hawkish, igxininisa imingcipheko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, imarike inokuba namathandabuzo malunga nendlela yomgaqo-nkqubo weFed, ekhokelela ekuguquguqukeni kwamasheya kunye neebhondi.

Ngaphezu koko, intetho kaPowell inokuba nefuthe kumgaqo-nkqubo wemali wamanye amazwe. Kuqoqosho lwanamhlanje oludityanisiweyo lwehlabathi, izigqibo zeFed azichaphazeli iMelika kuphela kodwa zineziphumo ezide kuqoqosho lwehlabathi.