05/31/2024

Ukudodobala koQoqosho, Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyathobeka

Ngokutsho kwedatha ehlaziyiweyo ekhutshwe liSebe lezoRhwebo lase-US ngoMeyi 30, izinga lokukhula kwekota-kwikota yonyaka ye-GDP yokwenene ye-US kwikota yokuqala ye-2024 yayiyi-1.3%, phantsi kweepesenti ze-0.3 ukusuka kuqikelelo lokuqala lwe-1.6% kwaye iyancipha kakhulu kune-3.4% yokukhula kwikota yesine yonyaka odlulileyo.

Olu hlengahlengiso lubangelwa ikakhulu kwiinkcitho zomntu ngamnye (PCE) eziwela ngaphaya kwezinto ezilindelekileyo. Ukukhula kwekota kwikota yekota ye-PCE kwikota yokuqala kwakuyi-2%, phantsi kweepesenti ze-0.5 ukusuka kuqikelelo lokuqala lwe-2.5% kwaye ngaphantsi kokulindela kweemarike ze-2.2%.

Kwi-inflation front, i-inflation ye-PCE yexabiso ikhule i-3.3% kwikota yonyaka kwikota yokuqala, ngaphantsi kwe-forecast yokuqala. Inkcazo yexabiso le-PCE engundoqo inyuke nge-3.6%, phantsi kweepesenti ze-0.1 ukusuka kuqikelelo lokuqala lwe-3.7%, kwaye iphezulu kakhulu kunokukhula kwe-2% kwikota yesine yonyaka odlulileyo. Nangona oku kubonisa ukuba uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso lusekho, kukwabonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kusendleleni yokumodareyitha.

Esona sizathu siphambili sokucotha kokukhula kwe-GDP yokwenyani kwikota yokuqala yayibubuthathaka obubonakalayo kwinkcitho yempahla, ngakumbi kwiimoto, kunye nedatha yenkcitho yabathengi ihlaziywa phantsi. Xa kuthelekiswa noqikelelo lokuqala, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kunye nenkcitho karhulumente nazo ziye zacotha. Nangona kunjalo, utyalo-mali lweendawo zokuhlala kunye nokuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kubonise ukuchacha okuthile.

I-GDP ilindeleke ukuBuyiselwa kwakhona kwi-Q2

Ngaphandle kokudodobala kokukhula koqoqosho kwikota yokuqala, uqikelelo lwamva nje lubonisa ukuba izinga lokukhula kwikota yesibini lingafikelela kwi-3% okanye ngaphezulu, nto leyo ebonisa ukuchacha kwezoqoqosho okwethutyana elifutshane. Nangona kunjalo, ukuzinza kunye nokomelela kolu hlaselo kuhlala kungaqinisekanga.

Abahlalutyi bakholelwa ukuba nangona i-GDP iphinda ibuyele kwikota yesibini, uqoqosho lwase-US alunakwenzeka ukubonisa umfutho oqinileyo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.

Abathengi kufuneka bangene kugcino lwabo ukuze bagcine amanqanaba akhoyo enkcitho, kwaye ukuhla kwamandla emali okuzingisileyo kuphelisa amandla abo okuthenga. Ukongeza, unyulo oluzayo lukamongameli lunokukhokelela amashishini ukuba athathe indlela elumke ngakumbi kwinkcitho kunye notyalo-mali.

Ulindelo lwemalike yenkunzi kumlinganiselo othotyiweyo yiFederal Reserve phakathi konyaka wehlile kakhulu. Ubhejo lwemalike ekuthotyweni kwenqanaba lokuqala lutyhalwe ukusuka kuSeptemba obekulindeleke ngaphambili ukuya kuNovemba. Amathuba okucuthwa komlinganiselo ngoSeptemba nawo wehlile ukusuka malunga ne-70% ukuya malunga ne-50%.

Ukungavisisani malunga nexesha lokucuthwa kweRhafu Kuyanda

Imizuzu evela kwintlanganiso yomgaqo-nkqubo we-Federal Reserve ibonisa ukuba abaninzi abathathi-nxaxheba bakholelwa ukuba kukho ukungaqiniseki okuqhubekayo malunga nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokuvuma ngamxhelo mnye ukuba idatha yakutshanje ayizange ikhulise ukuzithemba kwabo kwi-inflation ebuyela kwi-2%. Oku kuphakamisa ukuba i-Fed isaqwalasela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso njengento ephambili kwizigqibo zayo zomgaqo-mali.

Nangona kunjalo, kukho abathile abanethemba phakathi kwabo. I-Federal Reserve iRhuluneli uChristopher Waller unethemba malunga nokuhla kwexabiso lentengo, echaza ukuba akukho mfuneko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso angaphezulu kunye nokuxhasa ukucuthwa kwamaxabiso kwangaphambili.

Kwintetho kwiPeterson Institute for Economics International ngoMeyi 21, uWaller uthe idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ka-Aprili ibonisa ukuba inkqubela phambili ekujoliswe kuyo kwi-2% inokuthi iqalise kwakhona, ebonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US akuzange kukhawuleze kwaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso angaphezulu akuyomfuneko.

I-Waller igxile ngokukodwa kwi-PMI engeyiyo yokuvelisa. Idatha yamva nje ibonisa ukuba i-PMI engeyiyo yokuvelisa, eyenza isabelo esikhulu semveliso, yawela ngaphantsi kwe-50, ibetha indawo ephantsi kakhulu ukususela ngoDisemba 2022, ebonisa ukuhla kwezoqoqosho.

Uye wathi ukuba ezi ndlela zedatha ziyaqhubeka, oko kuya kuthetha ukuba umsebenzi wezoqoqosho ngaphandle kwemveliso uyacotha. Ukuba le datha iyaqhubeka nokuthamba kwiinyanga ezi-3-5 ezizayo, i-Fed inokufuneka iqalise ukucutha izinga.

Ngokuchasene noko, iRhuluneli ye-Federal Reserve uMichelle Bowman ulindele ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US kuhlale kuphezulu ixesha elide kwaye waphinda wathi ukunyuka kweereyithi okungaphezulu kunokwenzeka ukuba kuyimfuneko.

"Ukuba idatha ezayo ibonisa ukuba inkqubela ekulweni nokunyuka kwamaxabiso iphelile okanye ibuyele umva, ndihlala ndizimisele ukuphakamisa uluhlu olujoliswe kuyo kwireyithi yemali ye-federal kwiintlanganiso ezizayo," watsho.

Inkcazo: Eli nqaku lihlelwe ngu-AAA LENDINGS; enye yemifanekiso ithathwe kwi-Intanethi, indawo yesiza ayimelwanga kwaye ayinakuphinda ishicilelwe ngaphandle kwemvume. Kukho imingcipheko kwimarike kwaye utyalo-mali kufuneka lulumke. Eli nqaku alibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali lomntu, kwaye alithatheli ingqalelo iinjongo ezithile zotyalo-mali, imeko yezemali okanye iimfuno zabasebenzisi ngabanye. Abasebenzisi kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukuba ngaba naziphi na izimvo, izimvo okanye izigqibo eziqulathwe apha zifanelekile na kwimeko yabo ethile. Tyala imali ngokufanelekileyo kumngcipheko wakho.