Emva kwesithuba esingangonyaka sokunyuka kwamazinga aqatha, imarike yabasebenzi ekugqibeleni ibonisa iimpawu zokuphola, kwaye inani labasebenzi abatsha liye lehla laya kutsho kwiminyaka emibini ephantsi.

Njengoko sichazile ngaphambili, eyona nto iphambili ekugxilwe kuyo xa i-Fed iya kunciphisa amaxabiso ngokulandelayo yimarike yabasebenzi.

Idatha ye-nonfarm payrolls kaDisemba ibonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwezinga le-Fed kuhlawule.

Ngaphaya koko, kulonwabo lwentengiso, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwemivuzo kuphole kakhulu ngoDisemba-umndilili womvuzo weyure unyuke nge-0.3% unyaka nonyaka, kwaye imivuzo yeyure ikhule ngeyona ndlela icothayo kunyaka nonyaka ukusukela ngo-Agasti ka-2021.

Kwinkomfa yabezindaba emva kokunyuka kwezinga likaDisemba, uSihlalo we-Fed u-Powell wagxininisa ukuba umvuzo ngowona mbandela ubalulekileyo ekulweni nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngo-2023.

Kwaye imizuzu yentlanganiso kaDisemba ekhutshwe ngoLwesithathu odlulileyo, ibonisa ukuba abathathi-nxaxheba be-FOMC bakholelwa ukuba ukugcina ukukhula komvuzo ophezulu kuxhasa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphambili kwicandelo leenkonzo (ngaphandle kwezindlu), kwaye ngoko ke kuyimfuneko ukuqhubela phambili ukukhuthaza ukulingana phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwi-inflation. imarike yezabasebenzi ukuze kuncitshiswe uxinzelelo kwintlawulo yemivuzo.

Ukupholisa okubalulekileyo ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso emivuzo kunika ubungqina obutsha bokuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyehla ngakumbi kwaye kuvula indlela yokuba i-Federal Reserve icothise isantya sokunyuka kwenzala.

 

Inqanaba lokungaphangeli liya kunyuka kakhulu

Nangona imarike yezemisebenzi iye yaphola kakhulu, inzuzo yemisebenzi engama-223,000 igqithile kulindelo lwemarike kwinyanga yesibhozo ilandelelana.

Nangona kunjalo, emva kwale ngxelo ibonakala ngathi “iqinile” malunga neentlawulo ezingezizo iifama, ayijongwa into yokuba ukukhula kwengqesho kusisiphumo ngokupheleleyo sabantu abaninzi ababambe imisebenzi emininzi.

NgoDisemba, bekukho abasebenzi bexesha elizeleyo abali-132 299 000 eUnited States, kodwa kwangaxeshanye, inani labasebenzi bexeshana landa ngama-679 000, yaye inani labantu abanemisebenzi emininzi landa ngama-370 000.

Kwezi nyanga zilishumi zidlulileyo, inani labasebenzi bexesha elizeleyo lehle ngama-288,000, ngoxa inani labasebenzi bexeshana liye landa ngama-886,000.

Oku kuthetha ukuba inani leentlawulo ezingezizo iifama bekufanele ukuba libi ngeyoMnga, ngokusekelwe kwelona nani labantu abafumana imisebenzi emitsha!

Kwaye ingxelo "yokubaxa" ye-nonfarm payrolls ibonakala imfamekise abantu, uqoqosho lunokubonisa iimpawu zokuqala zokudodobala koqoqosho.

Ukujonga idatha yembali ibonisa ukuba imarike yezemisebenzi ngokwayo isalathiso esisemva kwaye ukunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwinqanaba lokungaqeshwa livame ukwenzeka xa izinga lenzala linyuka liyeka okanye umgaqo-mali utshintshela ukucutha izinga.

Oku kuthetha ukuba izinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi linokuthi linyuke ngokukhawuleza kulo nyaka emva kokuba i-Fed iyeke ukuphakamisa inzala.

Iingcali zezoqoqosho zeBhanki yaseMelika zide zaqikelela ukuba izinga labantu abangaphangeliyo liza kunyuka ukusuka kwi-3.7% ukuya kwi-5.3% kulo nyaka, eliya kuba ngabantu abazizigidi ezili-19 abangaphangeliyo!

 

Amaxabiso emali-mboleko kulindeleke ukuba ehle

Njengomphumo wokucotha kweemarike zabasebenzi kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso emivuzo, ukubheja kweemarike kwi-Fed rate yokunyuka kuye kwancipha, kunye nemarike ngoku ilindele ukunyuka kwamanqaku angama-25 ngoFebruwari, okuyi-75.7%.

Isivuno sebhondi yase-US seminyaka eli-10 sehle ngaphezulu kwamanqaku angama-30 ngeveki, kwaye amaxabiso emali-mboleko kulindeleke ukuba ehle ngakumbi.

Njengoko ukuhla kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqinisa, amehlo e-Fed aya kuba kwimarike yabasebenzi kwizigaba ezilandelayo.

U-Ellen Zentner, ingcali yezoqoqosho eMorgan Stanley, waphinda wagxininisa ukuba imarike yabasebenzi inokuthi ibe yisalathisi esilandelayo, kungekhona i-CPI.

 

Njengoko imarike yabasebenzi iphola, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kuncipha ngokukhawuleza, kwaye imarike yemali-mboleko iya kuqalisa ukubuyiswa.