Ilizwe eliza kwamkela iindwendwe, iQatar, linemozulu yasentlango enamaqondo obushushu aphezulu kakhulu ngoJuni nangoJulayi kunye namaqondo obushushu apholileyo ngoNovemba, oko kuyenza ilungele imidlalo yangaphandle enzima.

Kuyo yonke imidlalo, iNdebe yeHlabathi kunye neemarike zemali zezona zinxibelelene kakhulu.INdebe yeHlabathi yangoku sele iza kuvulwa, kodwa abatyali-mali abaninzi abangabalandeli abayithandi loo nto.

Oku kungenxa yokuba “isiqalekiso seNdebe yeHlabathi” esijikeleza emarikeni sinokuphinda sidlale – ngexesha leNdebe yeHlabathi, iimalike zemali zidla ngokuqhuba kakubi.

Nangona isiqalekiso ekuqaleni sasivela kwikhonkco phakathi kwebhola ekhatywayo kunye ne-US stocks, idatha yembali ibonisa ukuba iimarike ze-stock market ziye zanyuka kathathu kuphela kwiiNdebe zeHlabathi ze-14 ezidlulileyo, kunye ne-78.57% ephazamisayo yokuhla.

Kwaye emva kweNdebe yeHlabathi nganye, iimarike zehlabathi “ngokuzenzekelayo” ziba nengxaki enkulu.

Umzekelo, ukuwa kwemarike yemasheya ngo-1986, ukudodobala koqoqosho lwase-US ngowe-1990, ingxaki yezemali yaseAsia ngo-1998, kunye nokugqabhuka kweqamza le-Intanethi ngo-2002.

U-Economist uDario Perkins uye wapapasha ishati ye "Panic Index" ukubonisa uxhulumaniso: Ngexesha leNdebe yeHlabathi, i-VIX ivame ukuphakama.

Isalathisi se-VIX saziwa ngokuba yi-panic index ye-stocks yase-US.Ukuphakama kwesalathisi, kunamandla ngakumbi ukwesaba kwiimarike.

Umthombo wedatha: Uphando lweSitrato saseLombard, i-London-based macroeconomic forecasting consultancy

Ukujonga kwitshathi kubonisa ukuba i-VIX ivame ukukhwela ngomhla wokuvulwa kweNdebe yeHlabathi.

Ke ngaba kubonakala ngathi "isiqalekiso seNdebe yeHlabathi", sinokuthenjwa ngokwenene?

Inzululwazi okanye "imetafiziksi"?

Ngokutsho kweBloomberg, esona sizathu sithe ngqo sokuba kutheni iimarike zehlabathi ziwela kwiimpawu zokuqala zeNdebe yeHlabathi kukuba inani elikhulu labaninizabelo kunye nabarhwebi bangabalandeli bebhola ekhatywayo kwaye baphazanyiswa yiNdebe yeHlabathi.

Ngexesha leNdebe yeHlabathi, amanani okurhweba ngokulinganayo kwihlabathi jikelele ayephantsi ukuya kuthi ga kwinqanaba elithile - abarhwebi babaleka ukuya kubukela umdlalo okanye bahlala emva kwexesha kakhulu, okubangele ukuhla okubonakalayo kwimithamo yorhwebo.

Ngokutsho kwezibalo, abantu abazibhiliyoni ezi-3,5 babukela iNdebe yeHlabathi ye-2018 eRashiya, ebala malunga nesiqingatha sabantu behlabathi, ngokukodwa ngenxa yokuba ixesha lomdlalo ligxininiswe kwiiyure zokurhweba eYurophu nase-United States, ngoko ke impembelelo kwimiqulu yorhwebo. kwiimarike kubaluleke kakhulu.

Ukongeza, ngexesha leNdebe yeHlabathi, kukho indawo enye enika umdla ngakumbi kunentengiso yezabelo, kwaye leyo ziivenkile zokubheja zehlabathi.

Ekubeni umda uphantsi kakhulu kwaye iziphumo zifumaneka kwiyure okanye ezimbini, uthatho-nxaxheba loluntu luphezulu kakhulu, olukhokelele ekuphambukeni kwemali yotyalo-mali.

Ngexesha leNdebe yeHlabathi yeFIFA ka-2018 eRashiya, ngaphezu kwe-550 yabaqhubi behlabathi jikelele bavelise imbuyekezo emangalisayo ye-136 yeebhiliyoni zee-euro.

Ngoko ke, "isiqalekiso seNdebe yeHlabathi" akusiyo ingcamango engenanto, ngokukodwa kunye nengcamango kumajelo eendaba emva kokuvunywa koluntu, kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe ibe yinto echaphazelekayo yengqondo, enokuthi iqhube ngakumbi i-anomalies yemarike.

Ngaba iya kubamba imarike yeebhondi?

Makhe sijonge indlela ye-10 yeminyaka ye-bond ye-US ngexesha leeNdebe zeHlabathi ezidlulileyo - isivuno sokuvalwa kwe-10-year bond yase-US iphantsi ngokubanzi kunesivuno sokuqala.

Umahluko phakathi kosuku lokuvala kunye nosuku lokuvula luvelisa kwi-10 yeminyaka yeebhondi zase-US ngexesha leNdebe yeHlabathi yangaphambili

Umthombo wedatha: Umoya

Oku kukwangenxa yokutshintsha kwengqwalasela yomtyali-mali emva kokuba itumente iqalile kwaye ezinye iimali ziya kuphuma kwimarike yebhondi;kwaye njengoko itumente isondela esiphelweni, umthamo wokurhweba ngokuthe ngcembe uyanyuka kwaye amaxabiso ebhondi aye ehla.

Ukongeza, isivuno sebhondi yase-US yeminyaka elishumi yehle kakhulu kwinyanga elandela ukuphela kweetumente zangaphambili zeNdebe yeHlabathi.

Iminyaka elishumi yebhondi yase-US inika umndilili kwiintsuku ezingama-30 emva kokuphela kweNdebe yeHlabathi yokugqibela

Umthombo wedatha: Umoya

Ukuba le pateni iqinisekisiwe kwakhona, ngoko ke kusenokwenzeka ukuba amaxabiso emali-mboleko aya kulandela umkhwa we-US 10-year bond kunye namava athile okubuyela umva.

Nangona kunzima ukubuyisela umva ukunyuswa kweereyithi kwixesha elifutshane ngokuchasene nokunyuka kwamazinga e-Fed aqhubekayo, iNdebe yeHlabathi iya kuba nefuthe elithile kwimarike, nangona iya kuhamba ngokuthe ngcembe.

Okokugqibela, sinqwenelela abalandeli nabahlobo bethu ulonwabo olukhulu kule Ndebe yeHlabathi!